Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 56.2%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Metz had a probability of 19.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.91%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (6.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
Result | ||
Lens | Draw | Metz |
56.2% | 24.2% | 19.6% |
Both teams to score 47.52% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.99% | 53.01% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.4% | 74.6% |
Lens Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.27% | 18.73% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.9% | 50.1% |
Metz Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.46% | 41.53% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.97% | 78.03% |
Score Analysis |
Lens | Draw | Metz |
1-0 @ 13.03% 2-0 @ 10.91% 2-1 @ 9.59% 3-0 @ 6.09% 3-1 @ 5.36% 4-0 @ 2.55% 3-2 @ 2.35% 4-1 @ 2.24% 4-2 @ 0.99% Other @ 3.09% Total : 56.2% | 1-1 @ 11.44% 0-0 @ 7.78% 2-2 @ 4.21% Other @ 0.76% Total : 24.19% | 0-1 @ 6.83% 1-2 @ 5.03% 0-2 @ 3% 1-3 @ 1.47% 2-3 @ 1.23% Other @ 2.03% Total : 19.6% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 34 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 81 | 33 | 48 | 76 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 42 | 26 | 67 |
3 | Brest | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 34 | 19 | 61 |
4 | Lille | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 59 |
5 | Nice | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 55 |
6 | Lyon | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 53 |
7 | Lens | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 51 |
8 | Marseille | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 50 |
9 | Reims | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 47 |
10 | Rennes | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 46 |
11 | Toulouse | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 43 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 41 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 39 |
14 | NantesNantes | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 30 | 55 | -25 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 43 | 66 | -23 | 29 |
R | Clermont | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |