Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.98%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 23.78% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.41%) and 1-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
Result | ||
Melbourne City | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
54.98% ( 0.51) | 21.23% ( 0.03) | 23.78% ( -0.56) |
Both teams to score 63.3% ( -0.83) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.05% ( -0.79) | 34.95% ( 0.78) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.07% ( -0.88) | 56.93% ( 0.88) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.19% ( -0.12) | 12.8% ( 0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.88% ( -0.23) | 39.11% ( 0.22) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.59% ( -0.86) | 27.4% ( 0.85) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.11% ( -1.12) | 62.88% ( 1.12) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne City | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 7.41% ( 0.23) 1-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 6.58% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 5.08% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 3.38% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.61% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.27% Total : 54.98% | 1-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 3.51% ( 0.14) 3-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.34% Total : 21.23% | 1-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 4.54% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.71% Total : 23.78% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 55 |
2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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