Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 37.3% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.84%) and 2-0 (5.04%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
Result | ||
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
40.01% ( 0.35) | 22.68% ( 0.43) | 37.3% ( -0.77) |
Both teams to score 66.57% ( -1.77) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.76% ( -2.27) | 34.24% ( 2.27) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.86% ( -2.61) | 56.14% ( 2.61) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.19% ( -0.81) | 17.81% ( 0.82) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.47% ( -1.42) | 48.53% ( 1.43) |
Adelaide United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.99% ( -1.34) | 19% ( 1.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.44% ( -2.28) | 50.56% ( 2.28) |
Score Analysis |
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Adelaide United |
2-1 @ 8.37% ( 0.19) 1-0 @ 5.84% ( 0.52) 2-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.32) 3-1 @ 4.81% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 4% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.13) 4-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) 4-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.12) Other @ 3.06% Total : 40.01% | 1-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.47) 2-2 @ 6.95% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.38) 3-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.21) Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.68% | 1-2 @ 8.05% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 5.62% ( 0.42) 0-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 4.46% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 3.85% ( -0.25) 0-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.85% ( -0.15) 2-4 @ 1.6% ( -0.18) 0-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.06) 3-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.65% Total : 37.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 55 |
2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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