Serie A | Gameweek 23
Feb 4, 2024 at 5pm UK
Gewiss Stadium
We said: Atalanta BC 1-0 Lazio
One goal could win this game, as two of Serie A's meanest defences in 2024 meet. Either a moment of magic or madness may prove decisive, with Atalanta's fine home record making them slim favourites to pull further clear of Lazio in the standings.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 61.56%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 16.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
| Result |
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Lazio |
61.56% ( 0.22) | 22.04% ( 0.01) | 16.4% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 48.12% ( -0.49) |
