Greece will be looking to end their World Cup 2022 qualification campaign on a positive note when they welcome Kosovo to Athens on Sunday night.
The home team will enter the contest off the back of a 1-0 defeat to Spain on Thursday, while Kosovo were in friendly action on Wednesday, suffering a 2-0 defeat to Jordan.
Match preview
© Reuters
Greece suffered their second defeat of their Group B campaign at home to Spain on Thursday, with Pablo Sarabia's first-half penalty proving to be the difference between the two teams in Athens.
The Pirate Ship had actually put themselves firmly in contention for a top-two finish in the section when they recorded back-to-back victories over Sweden and Georgia, but John van 't Schip's side have since lost their last two to Sweden and Spain, and they will finish third in Group B.
Greece, who famously won Euro 2004, failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, but they were present in the 2010 and 2014 editions of the tournament, reaching the round of 16 in 2014.
It was always going to be a tough ask for the Sky Blues and Whites to match Spain in the section, they did beat second-placed Sweden at home in September and might view this campaign as a big opportunity missed.
Greece's last two matches against Kosovo have finished level, including a 1-1 draw in the reverse match in this section back in September, but they beat Sunday's opponents 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League last September.
© Reuters
Kosovo, meanwhile, have not been in competitive action since suffering a 2-1 defeat to Georgia in their penultimate Group B fixture in October.
Primoz Gilha's side will enter this match off the back of a 2-0 friendly defeat to Jordan on Wednesday, though, and they are currently on a four-game losing run, which includes World Cup 2022 qualification defeats to Spain and Sweden.
Kosovo have found it difficult to compete in this section, boasting a record of one win, one draw and five defeats from seven matches to collect four points, which has left them bottom of the group.
Dardanet were also not present at the 2018 World Cup, losing nine of their 10 qualification matches, but they did show improvement during their Euro 2020 qualification campaign, winning three, drawing two and losing four of their nine fixtures.
- D
- D
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Greece boss Van 't Schip is expected to make a couple of changes to his starting XI from the Spain fixture, with Christos Tzolis and Anastasios Douvikas pushing to come into the side.
The hosts could again line up in a 3-5-2 formation, with Liverpool's Kostas Tsimikas operating as one of the three centre-backs, and Norwich City's Dimitris Giannoulis playing on the left.
Greece have plenty of options in the forward areas, but the side is expected to be similar to the one that faced Spain, with Manolis Siopis retaining his spot in midfield.
As for Kosovo, there should be plenty of familiar names in their starting XI, with Lazio's Vedat Muriqi, who has 18 goals for his country, operating at the tip of the attack.
Norwich City's Milot Rashica and Reims's Valon Berisha are also expected to be in the team, while Napoli's Amir Rrahmani should captain the team from the middle of the defence.
Toni Domgjoni will be hoping to earn his first cap, while centre-forward Astrit Selmani will be looking to receive some minutes off the bench, as he goes in search of his first international goal.
Greece possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Androutsos, Goutas, Tzavellas, Tsimikas, Giannoulis; Tzolis, Siopis, Bouchalakis, Mantalos; Douvikas
Kosovo possible starting lineup:
Muric; Vojvoda, Rrahmani, Fazliji, Aliti; Halimi, Zhegrova, Berisha; Shala, Muriqi, Rashica
We say: Greece 2-1 Kosovo
The two sides played out a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture at the start of September, and we are expecting this to be a tight match on Sunday. Greece have the stronger team, though, and we are backing the home side to end their World Cup qualification campaign on a positive note.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greece win with a probability of 58.84%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Kosovo had a probability of 17.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greece win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.66%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.1%), while for a Kosovo win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
