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FA Cup | Third Round Replays
Jan 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Swansea.com Stadium
Bristol City

Swansea
1 - 2
Bristol City

Cooper (73')
Wood (90+4'), Cundle (94'), Latibeaudiere (120+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Sykes (62'), Bell (112')
Pring (75'), Semenyo (120+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Swansea City and Bristol City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Swansea City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Sunderland 1-3 Swansea
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Championship

Bristol City

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Bristol City 4-2 Birmingham
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Swansea City 1-0 Bristol City

 Both teams will enter this match off the back of impressive Championship wins, and we are expecting Tuesday's contest to be a close affair. It would certainly not be a shock to see Bristol City triumph, but we have a feeling that Swansea will be able to navigate their way to a victory here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 51.7%. A win for Bristol City had a probability of 24.88% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.4%). The likeliest Bristol City win was 1-2 (6.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.

Result
Swansea CityDrawBristol City
51.7% (-0.055 -0.05) 23.42% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01) 24.88% (0.059000000000001 0.06)
Both teams to score 56.8% (0.088000000000001 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.92% (0.086999999999996 0.09)44.08% (-0.087999999999994 -0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.54% (0.083999999999996 0.08)66.46% (-0.085000000000008 -0.09)
Swansea City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.91% (0.010000000000005 0.01)17.08% (-0.012 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.73% (0.020999999999994 0.02)47.27% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Bristol City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.5% (0.096000000000004 0.1)31.5% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.11% (0.111 0.11)67.88% (-0.113 -0.11)
Score Analysis
    Swansea City 51.7%
    Bristol City 24.88%
    Draw 23.42%
Swansea CityDrawBristol City
2-1 @ 9.71% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-0 @ 9.51% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
2-0 @ 8.4% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-1 @ 5.72% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-0 @ 4.95% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.3% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.53% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 2.19% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-2 @ 1.46% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 3.95%
Total : 51.7%
1-1 @ 10.98% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.61% (0.013 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.38% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.27% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 23.42%
1-2 @ 6.35% (0.012 0.01)
0-1 @ 6.22% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-2 @ 3.59% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.44% (0.011 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.16% (0.011 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.38% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 24.88%

How you voted: Swansea vs Bristol City

Swansea City
72.5%
Draw
16.7%
Bristol City
10.8%
102
Head to Head
Jan 8, 2023 12.30pm
Third Round
Bristol City
1-1
Swansea
Semenyo (75')
Naismith (39'), Pring (84')
Piroe (15')
Allen (45+3'), Wood (62'), Darling (69')
Oct 29, 2022 12pm
Bristol City
1-1
Swansea
Conway (24')
Pring (90+4')
Ntcham (76')
Feb 13, 2022 1pm
Swansea
3-1
Bristol City
Obafemi (54'), Christie (79'), Piroe (90+4')
Obafemi (56'), Christie (90+2')
Weimann (42')
Klose (59'), Dasilva (69'), Semenyo (86'), Martin (90+2'), Williams (90+4')
Aug 20, 2021 7.45pm
Bristol City
0-1
Swansea

Simpson (36'), Weimann (58'), Atkinson (76'), Semenyo (84')
Piroe (19')
Fulton (17'), Piroe (35'), Manning (47'), Bidwell (57'), Latibeaudiere (67'), Grimes (90')
Feb 27, 2021 3pm
Swansea
1-3
Bristol City
Ayew (55' pen.)
Bidwell (61')
Wells (66'), Palmer (80'), Semenyo (90+7')
Towler (25'), Semenyo (90+10')
rhs 2.0
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