Western Conference high-flyers Los Angeles Galaxy travel to Soldier Field on Sunday, when they will face Chicago Fire, who currently sit sixth in the Eastern Conference.
This weekend's hosts suffered their first defeat of the campaign in their previous outing, while LA Galaxy enter this encounter after bouncing back from consecutive losses with two wins on the bounce.
Match preview
© Reuters
Fire have the joint-best defensive record in the MLS so far this season, having conceded just two goals in their opening six matches, but one of those strikes proved costly in a 1-0 defeat against Orlando City on Saturday.
Ezra Hendrickson's side's challenge at the Exploria Stadium was made more difficult just before half time when Brian Gutierrez was sent off for a second bookable offence, and after that, Chicago struggled to create many chances on goal.
This weekend's hosts have drawn three matches this year, all ending 0-0, suggesting that if Chicago can improve in the attacking third, they will be able to create a gap between themselves and those outside the top seven.
Those draws have meant that Hendrickson's side have managed to maintain an unbeaten start on home soil, but the Fire will want to entertain their own crowd more by creating more chances on goal.
© Reuters
LA Galaxy will be full of confidence entering this clash, after securing a 2-1 win over rivals Los Angeles FC last Sunday, thanks goals from Javier Hernandez and Sega Coulibaly.
Greg Vanney's side allowed their visitors to have more possession in that match, and in turn LAFC created more chances, but Galaxy were efficient with their opportunities in front of goal, scoring their only two shots on target.
Despite that victory, LA Galaxy remain one point behind Steven Cherundolo's side in the Western Conference, but three points on Sunday could allow Vanney's team to leapfrog their rivals.
Of the eight goals Vanney's team have scored in total this season, Hernandez has netted five of them, suggesting that he is the main threat Chicago will have to deal with, as well as Raheem Edwards and Samuel Grandsir, who have shown their creativity in assists.
Neither of these two sides have looked to highly press their opponents this year, meaning that Sunday's clash could force one of Chicago or Galaxy to come out of their defensive shape more than usual.
- D
- D
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Chicago attacker Xherdan Shaqiri was forced off after just 19 minutes against Dallas at the beginning of this month, and he did not make a full recovery in time to feature last weekend, and is likely to miss out again this time around.
There are no new injury concerns for Hendrickson to concern himself about, but he will have to alter his midfield after Gutierrez's red card against Orlando, meaning that youngster Javier Casas could make his first start of the campaign.
Gaston Gimenez is certain to start in the middle of the field, and after a strong performance last weekend Federico Navarro is likely to have earned his place alongside Gimenez again.
Adam Saldana and Jorge Villafana continue to be sidelined for LA Galaxy due to injury, but the visitors are expected to continue with the same starting 11 that secured victory over rivals LAFC.
Hernandez is certain to lead the line, with Grandsir and Efrain Alvarez operating in the wide areas either side of Victor Vazquez, who will operate in the number 10 role.
Marco Delgado will be available for selection again after his suspension, but Kelvin Leerdam and Rayan Raveloson could continue in midfield as they did so last weekend.
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Slonina; Espinoza, Pineda, Omsberg, Sekulic; Navarro, Gimenez; Bornstein, Casas, Ivanov; Przybylko
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Bond; Edwards, Williams, Coulibaly, Araujo; Raveloson, Leerdam; Grandsir, Vazquez, Alvarez; Hernandez
We say: Chicago Fire 1-2 Los Angeles Galaxy
This is expected to be an entertaining encounter after both sides have started the season quite well, but entering this match on the back of a derby win could be the boost that Galaxy need in this away fixture.
Chicago have not scored a flurry of goals this season, which will play into the hands of Galaxy, who can then use the hosts' lack of attacking threat to make sure they outscore their opponents.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 44.75%. A win for Los Angeles Galaxy had a probability of 29.85% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Los Angeles Galaxy win was 0-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
