Atletico Nacional host Argentinos Juniors at the Estadio Atanasio Girardot Medellin on Friday in a top-of-the-table clash in Group F of the Copa Libertadores.
The Argentinian side currently lead the group having won both of their opening fixtures, but just two points behind them are the Colombian outfit Atletico Nacional.
Match preview
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Alexandre Guimaraes's side topped the Colombian Primera A table after 18 games, making them favourites for the championship's playoffs which started on April 26.
Last time out Atletico Nacional faced La Equidad in the second leg of the quarter-final playoff tie and goals from Andres Andrade and Baldomero Perlaza earned their side a 2-2 draw at home.
However, that result was not enough to overturn the 1-0 lead La Equidad held from the first leg as Hansel Zapata's 66th-minute strike in the first leg turned out to be the difference between the two sides.
Gameweek two in the Copa Libertadores brought an entertaining 4-4 draw between Atletico Nacional and Uruguayan outfit Nacional, with Guimaraes's side relying upon a Jarlan Barrera strike five minutes from time to earn a point away from home.
Despite Nacional being reduced to 10 men after 42 minutes when centre-back Guzman Corujo was shown a red card, Atletico Nacional could not make their player overload count and were 4-2 down with 15 minutes to play in that game.
Friday's visitors have made a strong start to their Copa Libertadores campaign with two wins from two so far, beating Nacional and Universidad Catolica by the same scoreline of 2-0.
Two clean sheets for goalkeeper Lucas Chavez gives Argentinos Juniors a strong base to build their campaign from, with all of the other teams in the group conceding at least four goals so far.
History has to go back to 1985 for the first and only time Juniors have claimed the Copa Libertadores title but they are early favourites to proceed from Group F despite not such good form in the league.
Gabriel Milito's side are eighth in the Copa de la Liga Profesional, only five points in front of bottom-placed team Arsenal Sarandi, but recent form has lifted them slightly after a poor start to the league campaign in February.
Argentinos Juniors started the campaign with three consecutive defeats but more recently they are undefeated in eight games in all competitions, last time out recording a 3-1 win away to Aldosivi.
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Team News
Atletico Nacional attackers Andrade and Barrera registered three goals between them in the 4-4 draw with Nacional and they are expected to start for Guimaraes's side on Friday, with Jefferson Duque leading the line through the centre of the pitch.
The back four of Danovis Banguero, Geisson Perea, Yerson Mosquera and Yerson Candelo along with goalkeeper Aldair Quintana will all need to perform better than in their last Copa Libertadores game to stop a strong scoring Argentinos Juniors side.
Argentinos Juniors' centre-back Carlos Quintana will return to the side after he missed the game against Universidad Catolica due to receiving two yellow cards in the opening Copa Libertadores group fixture against Nacional.
Milito will be able to field his strongest side on Friday, likely to be in a 3-4-1-2 formation with Gabriel Avalos and Gabriel Hauche leading the line for the Argentinian side.
Atletico Nacional possible starting lineup:
Quintana; Banguero, Perea, Mosquera, Candelo; Gomez, Rovira, Perlaza; Andrade, Duque, Barrera
Argentinos Juniors possible starting lineup:
Chavez; Quintana, Torren, Di Cesare; Elias Gomez, Moyano, Jonathan Gomez, Sandoval; Florentin; Avalos, Hauche
We say: Atletico Nacional 2-2 Argentinos Juniors
Atletico Nacional have been involved in a couple of high-scoring draws recently, showing the capability to break the Argentinos Juniors defence but also showing fragilities defensively.
The visitors are unbeaten in their last eight games in all competitions and therefore they should not lose this game, but we predict their 100% record in the Copa Libertadores will come to an end on Friday in a 2-2 draw away from home.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Nacional win with a probability of 51.13%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Argentinos Juniors had a probability of 22.91%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.21%), while for an Argentinos Juniors win it was 0-1 (8.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
