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Preview: WTA Finals final: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Caroline Garcia - prediction, head to head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Monday's WTA Finals title match between Aryna Sabalenka and Caroline Garcia, including predictions, head-to-head records and their route to the final.

Aryna Sabalenka and Caroline Garcia will battle it out on Monday for the biggest title of their careers in Fort Worth.

Sabalenka is thriving in confidence after beating all of the world's top-three players over the past week, including three-time Grand Slam champion Iga Swiatek.

Meanwhile, Garcia has scored seven wins over top-10 players this season and is the first player to reach the title match at the WTA Finals after turning 29 since Venus Williams in 2017.


Match preview

Aryna Sabalenka reacts to winning her semi final match against Iga Swiatek (POL) on day seven of the WTA Finals at Dickies Arena on November 7, 2022© Reuters

This year's WTA Finals has been a roller-coaster journey for Aryna Sabalenka, who has enjoyed mixed fortunes in her group matches.

The world number seven clawed her way back from a set down to defeat Ons Jabeur in her opening match before suffering a defeat to Maria Sakkari.

Despite the setback, Sabalenka regained her momentum by defeating Jessica Pegula 6-3 7-5, to seal her place in the last four.

Undoubtedly Sabalenka's highest profile win occurred in the semi-finals where she knocked out Iga Swiatek in three sets.

The victory ended her rival's run of 15 consecutive wins over top-10 players and earned Sabalenka her third win over a current world number one player.

The Belarusian is only the third player since 2000 to have defeated every member of the world's top three in the same tournament after both of the Williams sisters.

Caroline Garcia (FRA) celebrates winning her match against Maria Sakkari (GRE) on day seven of the WTA Finals at Dickies Arena on November 6, 2022© Reuters

Caroline Garcia began the season ranked outside the world's top 70 but has surged up the standings following a resurgence in form.

The 29-year-old has continued her run in fine form at the end-of-season tournament but, similar to Sabalenka, her route to the final has been far from straightforward.

The Frenchwoman dropped only seven games during her opening win against Coco Gauff before suffering a heavy loss to top seed, Swiatek.

With everything to play for in the group stages, she booked her place in the semi-final by outlasting Daria Kasatkina in a marathon encounter which was decided by a third-set tiebreaker.

Despite being sternly tested, Garcia dominated her semi-final encounter with Maria Sakkari, dropping just five games.

Garcia had a world ranking of 75 in June and had not played a Tour final in three years, but since then she has won more than 30 matches and become the only WTA player this year to have won titles on three different surfaces.

The WTA Finals title match is the most prestigious final in the careers of both Sabalenka and Garcia, who have won 10 WTA titles each ahead of this showdown.


Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First group match: vs. Ons Jabeur 3-6 7-6[5] 7-5
Second group match: vs. Maria Sakkari 2-6 4-6
Third group match: vs. Jessica Pegula 6-3 7-5
Semi-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 6-2 2-6 6-1

Caroline Garcia:

First group match: vs. Coco Gauff 6-4 6-3
Second group match: vs. Iga Swiatek 3-6 2-6
Third group match: vs. Daria Kasatkina 6-4 1-6 7-6[5]
Semi-final: vs. Maria Sakkari 6-3 6-2


Head To Head

Caroline Garcia (FRA) at the net with Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) after their match at the Western & Southern Open at the Lindner Family Tennis Center in August 2022© Reuters

Western and Southern Open (2018) - third round: Sabalenka def Garcia 6-4 3-6 7-5
China Open (2018) - third round: Sabalenka def Garcia 5-7 7-6[3] 6-0
WTA Elite Trophy (2018) - round-robin match: Garcia def Sabalenka 6-4 6-4
Western and Southern Open (2022) - semi-finals: Garcia def Sabalenka 6-2 4-6 6-1

Three out of the past four meetings between Sabalenka and Garcia were back in 2018, when the Belarusian won two of those encounters - although she did drop a set in each of those matches.

Garcia has won their two most recent clashes, including their only one this year in Cincinnati which will be a big confidence boost for her heading into Monday's final.

Additionally, she also triumphed at the 2018 Elite Open, which was the only straight-sets match of their rivalry.


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We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets

Given their history, it is very likely that the latest clash between the two tennis stars will be a close encounter but the edge has to be given to Sabalenka. Sabalenka is carrying the momentum of having beaten the three highest-ranked players at the tournament and will be eager to avenge her loss to Garcia earlier this year.

The 24-year-old is yet to win a title in 2022 after finishing runner-up in Stuttgart and 's-Hertogenbosch, so she has the extra motivation.

Garcia will be a tricky opponent and the final will likely go the full distance. However, Sabalenka's powerful shot-making should give her the edge to claim the biggest title of her career.

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Written by
Adam Addicott

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