Preview: US Open: Alexander Bublik vs. Tommy Paul - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Alexander Bublik aims to be fourth-time lucky against Tommy Paul on Saturday, when both players tussle for a spot in the last 16 at the US Open.

The seven-time titlist has never defeated the American on the ATP Tour, but he has another opportunity, and any optimism felt ought to grow after seeing Paul wobble for two sets in his second-round victory over Nuno Borges.

Match preview

If Paul goes deep in this US Open, he will look back at his second-round victory over Borges as a pivotal moment after a two-set dip that could have cost the 14th seed.

Although the American player needed to save a set point in the opening tie-break, he had established a two-set lead and appeared to be on course for consecutive victories in straight sets; however, the Portuguese player rallied to win sets three and four, forcing a decider.

Paul ultimately triumphed 7-6(6), 6-3, 5-7, 5-7, 7-5 in a match that lasted four hours and 25 minutes; a contest that began on Thursday but concluded in the early hours of Friday.

As a result of that victory, the 14th seed has secured his place in the tournament's third round for a fourth consecutive year, and he will hope to rest and recover before facing another match with the unpredictable Bublik.

Having only recently returned from his post-Wimbledon injury in Cincinnati — the Masters event preceding the final Grand Slam of the year — more than four hours of competitive play should serve the four-time ATP champion well.

The idiosyncrasies of the Kazakhstani star on the other side of the net make him a danger to any player on the tour when everything clicks; however, those moments are usually random.

Only Bublik can manage to defeat two top-10 players — Alex de Minaur and Jack Draper — at the French Open and then follow that by winning the ATP 500 title in Halle, overcoming Jannik Sinner along the way, only to lose in the first round of Wimbledon.

Only Bublik chooses to compete in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel after Wimbledon — clay tournaments he has won — rather than the hard-court events leading up to the final Grand Slam of the season.

That choice has so far not been a disadvantage for the world No. 24, who has recorded comfortable three-set victories over veteran Marin Cilic and Tristan Schoolkate to reach the third round in New York for the second time, six years after his first appearance in 2019.

The 23rd seed has lost just 18 games in those matches, firing a remarkable 84 winners and not dropping serve, setting up a fourth encounter with his American opponent, whom he aims to defeat after previous unsuccessful attempts.

Tournament so far

Alexander Bublik:

First round: vs. Marin Cilic 6-4 6-1 6-4

Second round: vs. Tristan Schoolkate 6-3 6-3 6-3

Tommy Paul:

First round: vs. Elmer Moller 6-3 6-3 6-1

Second round: vs. Nuno Borges 7-6(6) 6-3 5-7 5-7 7-5

Head To Head

Miami Masters (2025) - Second round: Paul 5-7 7-5 6-4

Wimbledon (2024) - Third round: Paul 6-3 6-4 6-2

Rotterdam (2021) - Round of 16: Paul 6-7(5) 6-3 6-1

Paul leads Bublik 3-0 in their head-to-head ahead of Saturday's third-round encounter between the two 28-year-olds.

The American's dominance is even more apparent when considering results outside of main-draw matches, with Paul victorious in Playford and Hamburg, whereas the Kazakhstani won in Queen's qualifying six years ago.

Paul enters Saturday's match with a 2-0 record in their hard-court meetings, which sandwich his win over the unpredictable Bublik at Wimbledon last year — their only Grand Slam encounter.

Nevertheless, the Kazakhstani player has secured victories in four of his most recent five matches against top-20 opponents this year, after losing four of the first five, indicating a potential shift for the world No. 24.

We say: Bublik to win in four sets

While this may be seen as controversial, given that Paul has dominated their previous matches, Bublik’s current form and the American's limited playing time before New York offer an opportunity for the Kazakhstani.

Much will depend on whether Good Bublik appears rather than Bad Bublik, but we will stick our necks out and back the Kazakh to beat the home player and progress to his first last-16 match at Flushing Meadows.