Preview: Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs. Anastasia Potapova- prediction, head to head, tournament so far

The last finalist at the 2026 Madrid Open on the women’s side will be determined on Thursday when Marta Kostyuk squares off with Anastasia Potapova.

In the quarter-finals, Kostyuk ousted Linda Noskova 7-6 (7-1) 6-0, while her upcoming opponent upset Karolina Pliskova 6-1 6-7 (4-7) 6-3.

Match preview

A second successive final is without reach for Marta Kostyuk on the WTA tour, after she put forth another strong all-around effort on Wednesday.

The Ukrainian has yet to lose a set at this year’s Madrid Open, making it a step further than she did at this tournament in 2025.

On Wednesday, she won 70% of her first serves and converted seven of her break point opportunities, putting her two wins away from claiming a second singles title this year.

In 2026, the Ukrainian has not lost a semi-final encounter on the singles draw, failing to drop a set in those two prior appearances.

For the year, she has won 80% of her service games, while saving over 60% of her break points so far in 2026.

Her return game has also been solid, with the 23-year-old winning over 45% of her return points for the year and converting close to half of her break point opportunities (46.8%).

Throughout the current edition of the Madrid Open, Anastasia Potapova has been turning heads with her performances, creating her share of upsets.

She has become the Cinderella story on the women’s side, ousting a pair of top 25 players since advancing through the qualification stage.

In her previous match, the Austrian hit 10 aces, while capturing seven break points, which made up for her nine double faults in that three-set affair.

A win for her on Thursday would mark her second appearance in a clay final this year, after capturing the Upper Austria Ladies Linz Open earlier this month.

Potapova’s 2026 campaign has been littered with mistakes registering over 80 double faults, though she has rescued more than 60% of her break points.

Overall, she has managed to win more than 60% of her service games this year, while collecting just over 50% of her service points thus far.

Tournament so far

Marta Kostyuk:

Round of 64: vs. Yulia Putintseva 6-1 6-3

Round of 32: vs. Jessica Pegula 6-1 6-4

Round of 16: vs. Caty McNally 6-2 6-3

Quarter-final: vs. Linda Noskova 7-6 (7-1) 6-0

Anastasia Potapova:

Qualifier: vs. Teodora Kostovic 6-4 7-5

Qualifier: vs. Sinja Kraus 2-6 7-6 (7-5) 3-6

Round of 64: vs. Zhang Shuai 6-3 6-1

Round of 32: vs. Jelena Ostapenko 4-6 6-4 6-4

Round of 16: vs. Elena Rybakina 7-6 (10-8) 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Karolina Pliskova 6-1 6-7 (4-7) 6-3

Head To Head

Miami Open (2023) - Round of 64: Potapova wins 6-1 6-3

Birmingham Classic (2023) - Round of 32: Potapova wins 6-7 7-5 6-4

Indian Wells (2024) - Quarter-final: Kostyuk wins 6-4 7-5

Madrid Open (2025) - Round of 16: Kostyuk wins 6-3 6-2

The first meeting between these two in South Beach saw Potapova win 89% of her first serves, and converting four break points en route to an improbable victory.

Later that year, when they squared off in Britain, the Austrian won 80% of her first serves and earned 43 receiving points to claim a narrow three-set triumph.

In 2024, in the US, Kostyuk had her first triumph in the series, collecting seven break points while winning 75% of her second serves.

The previous time these two met in Madrid, the Ukrainian managed to even the head-to-head series with Potapova, thanks to winning 73% of her first serves and boasting 75% on her second ones.

We say: Kostyuk to win in three sets

While Potapova has not been intimidated by big players, her errors throughout this tournament could come back to haunt her against a player like Kostyuk, who has been fundamentally sound and solid through this year’s Madrid Open.