Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Adam Walton - Australian Open prediction, head-to-head

Meeting for the first time in a Grand Slam event, Adam Walton will seek to cause the first massive upset of the 2026 Australian Open when he faces top-seeded Carlos Alcaraz in the opening round of the men’s draw on Saturday.

The Spaniard is coming off a defeat in the final of the Nitto ATP Finals to Jannik Sinner in November 6-7 (4-7) 5-7, while Walton was beaten in the round of 32 of the Brisbane International earlier this month by fellow Australian Rinky Hijikata, 3-6 2-6.

Match preview

This weekend, Alcaraz begins his quest to collect the one singles Grand Slam trophy that has eluded him in his hugely successful career so far.

In each of the last two years, he has fallen at the quarter-final stage of this event but he has never exited this tournament in the opening round.

Despite failing to win his last two singles events on tour, Alcaraz should be feeling good about his chances in Australia, especially after beating sixth-ranked Aussie Alex de Minaur in a warm-up match this week.

Since losing in the last eight of this tournament last year to Novak Djokovic, Alcaraz has made the final in each of the previous three majors.

Last year, the aggressive baseline player won 76% of his first serve points, while also winning 89% of his service games on the hard-court surface.

His powerful forehand has been noticeable on the hard court, with Alcaraz winning 42% of his return points on that surface in 2025.

Home court has not served as much of an advantage for Adam Walton at this tournament, with the Queensland-born player seeking a berth in the second round of the Aussie Open for the first time.

Grand Slams have not been kind to him throughout his career, as Walton has exited five of the last eight majors on the singles draw in the opening round.

In fact, he has not advanced beyond his first match since the 2025 Almaty Open last October, when he was eliminated in the round of 16 by Daniil Medvedev in straight sets 5-7 6-7.

It was nearly a year ago when he previously achieved a tournament victory on Australian soil, defeating Jason Kubler in the final of an ATP Challenger Tour event in his hometown of Brisbane last February.

In his only previous tournament appearance this year, he won 67% of his first serves, while hitting four aces with one double fault.

Overall, Walton won 80% of his service games on the hard court in 2025 while saving 57% of his break points.

Head To Head

Queen's Club Championship (2025) - First Round: Alcaraz wins 6-4 7-6

The only previous time these two met was on the grass court at the Queen's Club Championship in London last June.

On that occasion, Alcaraz fired 10 aces while not giving up a single break points to Walton, as the Spaniard won 85.71% of his first serves.

We say: Alcaraz to win in three sets

It remains to be seen if Alcaraz can finally win this tournament, but his forehand power and service game should enable him to eliminate Walton with ease this weekend.