Preview: Australian Open: Alex de Minaur vs. Frances Tiafoe - prediction, form, head-to-head

In a rematch from the 2018 US Open, Alex de Minaur will square off with Frances Tiafoe in the third round of the Australian Open in Melbourne.

On Wednesday, the Australian came from behind to defeat Hamad Medjedovic in four sets, 6-7 (7-5) 6-2 6-2 6-1, while Tiafoe got past Francisco Comesana 6-4 6-3 4-6 6-2.

Match preview

Despite some early struggles, Alex de Minaur persevered in his second-round match, winning 76% of his first serves against his Serbian opponent.

After converting one of his six break point opportunities in the second set while up 3-2, the #6 seed never looked back, breaking Medjedovic in six of his next eight service games.

The Sydney-born player is now just one win away from making round four of this tournament for a fifth consecutive time and has not exited this event in the third round since 2021.

Patience has been a strong suit for him of late, and that has been evident in the early going of this tournament as he has only conceded one break point overall, while his two opponents have committed a combined 13 double faults, 11 of which came from Medjedovic.

While he has benefitted from his opponents’ errors, de Minaur has struggled to handle serves, allowing 26 aces in two matches, 19 on Wednesday.

He has maintained a strong net presence thus far, winning 16 net points in round two in midweek.

For the first time since 2023, Frances Tiafoe is in the third round of this tournament, coming up big when needed on Wednesday.

Minimizing mistakes has been key to him getting this far, with the American only committing one double fault against his Argentinian opponent in midweek.

Tiafoe will have to improve his overall service game if he is to oust another Australian from this tournament, boasting a first serve percentage of 56 on Wednesday, while winning just 53% of his second serves.

A win against de Minaur would send him into the fourth round of this event for the first time since 2019, when he got to the quarter-finals before Rafael Nadal beat him in straight sets.

While his serve was not as overpowering on Wednesday, Tiafoe did register 23 aces in his opening match against Australian Jason Kubler in a three-set triumph.

His first-serve average speed versus Comesana was 187 km per hour, while he has won a combined nine break points in two matches, conceding only two altogether.

Tournament so far

Alex de Minaur:

First round: vs. Mackenzie McDonald- 6-2 6-2 6-3

Second round: vs. Hamad Medjedovic - 6-7 (7-5) 6-2 6-2 6-1

Frances Tiafone:

First round: vs. Jason Kubler – 7-6 (7-4) 6-3 6-2

Second round: vs. Francisco Comesana 6-4 6-3 4-6 6-2

Head To Head

Brisbane Challenger (2017) - Second Round Qualifier: de Minaur wins 6-7 6-4 6-4

US Open (2018) - Second Round: de Minaur wins 6-4 6-0 5-7 6-2

Next Gen ATP Finals (2019) - Semi-Finals: de Minaur wins 4-2 4-1 0-4 4-2

ATP Masters Paris (2022) - Round of 16: Tiafoe wins 6-3 7-6

ATP Masters Canada (2025) - Round of 16: de Minaur wins 6-4 4-6 6-4

When these two first met on Australian soil in 2017, de Minaur overcame an opening set loss, winning three of his five break-point opportunities to claim victory.

At Flushing Meadows the following year, the Australian won 75% of his first serves, with Tiafoe hitting nine double faults to his four.

When they next played at the Next Gen ATP Finals, Tiafoe failed to convert any break points against de Minaur, who won 70% of his first-serve points.

In 2022, it was the Americans’ turn to finally earn a win in this series, as Tiafoe powered home 14 aces and converted two of his break point chances in the win.

Last year, when these two previously met, it was de Minaur converting five break points while winning 49% of his second serves to advance.

We say: de Minaur to win in five sets

While Tiafoe may have the edge in power, de Minaur never seems to get rattled, and we expect his American opponent to make one too many mistakes in the end.