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Rugby Championship | Group Stage
Sep 24, 2022 at 8.05am UK
 
New Zealand
40-14
Australia
Jordan (23'), Whitelock (43'), Taylor (54'), Taukei'aho (65')
FT
Fainga'a (59'), Petaia (80')

Preview: New Zealand vs. Australia - predictions, team news, head to head

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Rugby Championship showdown between trans-Tasman rivals New Zealand and Australia, including predictions, team news and their head-to-head record.

A captivating Rugby Championship season comes to a head on Saturday, starting with rivals New Zealand and Australia renewing hostilities in Auckland just a week after the two sides played out one of the most controversial finales to a Test in recent memory.

The All Blacks top the table heading into the final round of fixtures, but they only lead South Africa on points difference, while Australia themselves could still lift the trophy if results go their way.


Match preview

New Zealand players celebrate after winning the match in August 2022© Reuters

The dust has not yet settled on last Thursday's hugely contentious showdown between these two old rivals, which saw New Zealand snatch victory from the jaws of defeat with a helping hand from referee Mathieu Raynal.

A classic Bledisloe Cup contest had already seen four yellow cards before the Wallabies bounced back from 31-13 down to take the lead heading into the final minutes of the match - a lead which looked secure when they won a penalty in front of their own line in the dying embers.

However, Raynal's decision to penalise perceived time-wasting by Bernard Foley just as the returning Aussie fly-half was about to kick the ball into touch gifted New Zealand a reprieve, and they duly scored from the resulting scrum to seal an incredible 39-37 triumph.

Australia have since complained to World Rugby about the standards of refereeing in the game, and they will not have been too pleased to see that Raynal is also involved in this weekend's match, although this time only as an assistant referee.

It was a result of enormous importance in the Rugby Championship, leaving New Zealand top and knowing that a bonus-point victory should be enough to secure the trophy despite a largely disappointing campaign - although even then they would face a nervous wait for South Africa's match against Argentina later in the day.

Should South Africa match New Zealand's bonus-point triumph then the title would come down to points difference - a tiebreaker New Zealand currently lead the Springboks in by 13 points - and should they also finish level on points difference then it would come down to points difference in matches between the two - a tiebreaker where South Africa have the edge.

Australia and Argentina could yet make those more complicated matters simpler by pulling off upsets, which can certainly not be discounted at the end of the most unpredictable Rugby Championship season yet.

However, New Zealand will be confident of holding up their end of the bargain at least, and they could not wish for a better place to finish their campaign than the fortress that is Eden Park.

The All Blacks have not lost a Test here since 1994, while you have to go back to 1986 for Australia's last win at the ground, a run of 22 successive New Zealand victories by an average margin of 18 points.

Should Australia end that 36-year drought then there will be scenes of deserved jubilation, yet it is still unlikely to be enough for Dave Rennie's men to overhaul the top two in the Rugby Championship table.

Due to the points difference, Australia would likely need a bonus-point win over New Zealand and for Argentina to beat South Africa to stand any chance of a first title since 2015.

The prospect of ending their 20-year wait to win the Bledisloe Cup also evaporated during that rarely-seen finish to last weekend's match, and New Zealand have now won each of the last four meetings between the two sides.

However, Australia showed last weekend that they can hurt the All Blacks and, but for a remarkable set of circumstances, they would have claimed the win. New Zealand have also looked more vulnerable this season than at any point in recent memory, so there remains hope of ending those hoodoos.

The Wallabies may have only won two of their last seven games, but New Zealand themselves have only won four of their last 10 and have already been beaten on home soil by Argentina in this season's competition.

New Zealand Rugby Championship form:

  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W

New Zealand form (all competitions):

  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W


Australia Rugby Championship form:

  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L

Australia form (all competitions):

  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L


Team News

The hosts will be without captain Sam Cane for this match after he was forced off in the first half of last week's game with a head injury.

Quinn Tupaea will also miss out after suffering a knee injury during a dangerous clear-out last Thursday, while David Havili is missing due to a head injury.

Scott Barrett is absent with an Achilles problem, but his brother Beauden Barrett comes in at 15, pushing fellow sibling Jordie Barrett into inside centre.

The influential Ardie Savea will return at number eight after missing last week's tie due to the birth of his child, and he is joined in an entirely-changed back row by Dalton Papali'i and Akira Ioane.

Codie Taylor has been given the nod at hooker ahead of Samisoni Taukei'aho, who drops to the bench despite scoring two tries in Melbourne last week, and he is joined on the replacements list by new faces Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Tupou Vaa'i and Sevu Reece.

Lock Sam Whitelock will captain the side on his 140th cap, moving above George Gregan into fifth in the list of most-capped international rugby players of all time - now just one behind Brian O'Driscoll.

Australia captain James Slipper has overcome an injury which forced him off last week to start for his 123rd cap, but Rob Leota suffered a ruptured Achilles in Melbourne and will miss out as a result.

Darcy Swain will also play no part having been banned for six weeks for the clear-out which caused Tupaea's injury, while Scott Sio is out through injury too.

Harry Wilson comes in at number eight due to Leota's injury, while Cadeyrn Neville comes into the second-row and Foley retains his place at fly-half after an impressive return to the international scene before the late drama in Melbourne.

New Zealand starting lineup:
15 Beauden Barrett; 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke; 10 Richie Mo'unga, 9 Aaron Smith; 8 Ardie Savea, Dalton Papali'i, Akira Ioane, Sam Whitelock (c), Brodie Retallick, Tyrel Lomax, Codie Taylor, Ethan de Groot

Replacements:
Samisoni Taukei'aho, Ofa Tu'ungafasi, Nepo Laulala, Tupou Vaa'i, Hoskins Sotutu, Finlay Christie, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Sevu Reece

Australia starting lineup:
15 Andrew Kellaway; 14 Tom Wright, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Lalakai Foketi, 11 Marika Koroibete; 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Jake Gordon; 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Pete Samu, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Jed Holloway, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Dave Porecki, 1 James Slipper

Replacements:
Folau Fainga'a, Angus Bell, Pone Fa'amausili, Nick Frost, Fraser McReight, Nic White, Reece Hodge, Jordan Petaia


Head To Head

This will be the 153rd meeting between the Trans-Tasman rivals - the most played international Test in rugby history.

New Zealand's win last week was their 109th - and one of their most controversial too - with Australia winning 37 times but failing to claim the Bledisloe Cup for two decades now.

As mentioned, the Wallabies' record at Eden Park is also poor, having lost their last 22 visits and not won there since 1986.


SM words green background

We say: New Zealand to win by 12

This match is not likely to be as high-scoring as the Melbourne maelstrom, which may actually come back to hurt New Zealand depending on what South Africa do against Argentina later in the day.

The All Blacks should win - their Eden Park record is too imperious to ignore in that regard - but the pressure could be on them to win by a significant margin and at least gain a bonus-point victory, and a fired-up Australia will be motivated to ensure that does not happen.
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Written by
Barney Corkhill

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New Zealand players celebrate after winning the match in August 2022
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