Yeovil Town have a chance to advance to the third round of the FA Cup when they welcome Stevenage to Huish Park in Somerset on Saturday.
The Glovers, who are currently 10th in the fifth tier of English Football, got to this stage of the competition thanks to an emphatic 5-0 triumph versus Yate Town in the opening round, while the Boro benefitted from a pair of red cards to beat MK Dons 2-1 in extra time in their first-round replay.
Match preview
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Yeovil kicked off their FA Cup campaign by taking out the Bluebells in impressive fashion on the road to advance into the second stage of this tournament for a second consecutive campaign.
That victory seems to have sparked this struggling side, as they are unbeaten in their last five matches in the National League and have not lost in five successive home games.
While their last FA Cup match was a cakewalk, they were nearly knocked out of the fourth qualifying round, drawing 1-1 with Weymouth and then winning the replay on penalties after the match ended in the same result after 120 minutes.
If they can pull off this upset on Saturday, it would be the first time that this club will have reached the third round of this competition as a non-league team since 2017-18, when they made it to the fourth round before falling 4-0 to the eventual runners-up that season, Manchester United.
Their manager Darren Sarll will relish the opportunity to try and knock out his old club, as the former Ipswich and Hitchin Town midfielder coached the Boro from 2016-2018.
This is a side with a solid defensive shape and who can put together some good build-up play, conceding the second-fewest goals in their league (15) this year.
Following a nervy opening-round victory against the Dons in extra-time, Stevenage can move into the third round of this competition for a second successive campaign.
The first match in charge for new manager Paul Tisdale was anything but memorable as his team were knocked out of the second round of the Football League Trophy tournament, losing 4-3 in a shootout to Sutton United after the match ended 0-0 after extra time.
Tisdale takes over a team who have struggled in League Two, only two points clear of relegation and having gone winless in six consecutive road matches in all competitions.
Their league play may not be where it needs to be at the moment, but they have elevated their game in these FA Cup ties numerous times through the years, including a victory over Newcastle United in the third round of the 2010-11 tournament and making it to the fifth round in 2011-12, losing 3-1 in a replay to Tottenham Hotspur.
One area that Tisdale is going to have to clean up with this team in a hurry is the way that they defend, which was better in their encounter on Tuesday, but in general, it has been poor, allowing the second-most goals in League Two (30) and conceding nine targeted efforts in their previous domestic affair versus Rochdale, in what ended up being the final match for Robbie O'Keefe as manager.
They have had their share of fairy tale runs in this tournament in past seasons, although their form against Yeovil has been more like of a tragedy as the Boro have failed to win their previous five road matches against them.
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Team News
Five different players tallied for the Glovers in their first-round victory at this competition, with Matt Worthington scoring the winner after only seven minutes, while the other goals came courtesy of Charlie Wakefield, Dale Gorman, Adi Yussuf and Sonny Blu Lo-Everton, who is on loan from Premier League side Watford.
Grant Smith stopped the only two shots that he faced in the opening round, while Lo-Everton and Josh Staunton had the only goals for them in a 2-0 win over Wrexham on Tuesday.
Elliott List, Luther James-Wildin and Elliot Osborne all missed their penalties for Stevenage in the second round of their Football League Trophy defeat after goalkeeper Joseph Anang had kept them in the game, stopping two spot-kicks from Sutton United.
Jamie Reid scored in the second half of their opening round FA Cup replay to force extra time, which is when Luke Norris came on to score from the spot in injury time to allow his side to progress to this stage for a second consecutive season.
Yeovil Town possible starting lineup:
Smith; Robinson, Williams, Staunton, Moss; Barnett, Gorman; Knowles, Worthington, Wakefield; Yussuf
Stevenage possible starting lineup:
Anang; Melbourne, Vancooten, Marshall; Smith, Read, Lines, Taylor, Barry; Norris, Daly
We say: Yeovil Town 1-2 Stevenage
Yeovil may have been the more impressive side in the opening round, but Stevenage have the experience of knowing what it takes to beat teams in lower divisions, having progressed from 11 of their 13 FA Cup ties against non-league sides (first round onwards), and we expect them to get the job done on Saturday.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Yeovil Town win with a probability of 40.25%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 33.76% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Yeovil Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Yeovil Town in this match.
