Willem II and RKC Waalwijk square off in the Eredivisie on Friday evening knowing that victory could prove to be the difference between survival and relegation.
While the visitors hold a four-point advantage over the bottom three, Willem II are at risk of dropping into 17th spot after the recent resurgence of Emmen.
Match preview
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There was a time earlier in the season when teams such as Willem II and Waalwijk would have felt that they were playing to avoid finishing in 17th spot, with Emmen seemingly out of the equation.
However, 15 points from seven games have put Emmen in contention for the most unlikely of survivals, heaping the pressure on these two teams to avoid a slip up on Friday night.
Sitting just a point above Emmen with a marginally worse goal difference, Willem II are more at risk, but defeat for Waalwijk would leave them with plenty to ponder ahead of the remaining four matches.
Both teams have suffered two successive defeats, although there can be little criticism of Waalwijk's effort during the 1-0 reverse against Ajax on April 11.
While Waalwijk boss Fred Grim would have preferred another fixture in quick succession, his opposite number Zeljko Petrovic has been left to mull over a 4-0 defeat at Heracles.
Although his side had put together a five-game unbeaten streak before that result, Willem II have now gone over 300 minutes without finding the back of the net.
Goals have also been a problem for Waalwijk, with top goalscorer Finn Stokkers having just five strikes to his name, none of which have been netted during 2021.
Anas Tahiri scored his only effort of the campaign in December's reverse fixture, but the Belgian has two assists in his last five appearances.
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Team News
Petrovic was not shy in making substitutions during the last game after trailing 3-0 at half time, potentially an indication that mass changes should be expected for this contest.
Che Nunnely, Gorkem Saglam, Lindon Selahi, Jop van den Avert and Rick Zuijderwijk will all feel that they are in contention for a place in the starting lineup.
Barring any late fitness issues, Grim is unlikely to make any alterations to his Waalwijk starting lineup.
Stokkers and Sylla Sow are both alternatives in the final third, but Sebbe Augustijns is likely to remain on the substitutes' bench.
Willem II possible starting lineup:
Muric; Owusu, Van Beek, Holmen, Kohn; Tresor, Saddiki, Saglam; Nunnely, Wriedt, Pavlidis
RKC Waalwijk possible starting lineup:
Lamprou; Bakari, Meulensteen, Touba, Quasten; Venne, Anita, Tahiri; Daneels, Oosting, John
We say: Willem II 0-0 RKC Waalwijk
With both teams in two minds over whether to push for victory or simply try to avoid defeat, we expect a nervy affair.
With that in mind, do not be surprised if this encounter ends in a drab share of the spoils, potentially without any goals.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 47.67%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 26.9% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 0-1 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Willem II in this match.
