AZ Alkmaar have been closing in on the top three in recent weeks, before defeat last weekend ended a 14-game unbeaten run in the Eredivisie, leaving them now sitting fourth and four points behind Feyenoord.
In contrast, Willem II need to find a way to win in their final eight games of the season, as they currently sit in the relegation qualification place, behind 15th place on goal difference.
Match preview
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Willem have only managed one win in their last 19 Eredivisie outings, a run which stretches back to September, after starting the season in a positive light.
Manager Fred Grim was dismissed from his duties earlier this month, and now Denny Landzaat has been tasked with the difficult challenge of turning Willem's form around.
The new man in the dugout could not manage a change in fortunes during his first match in charge last weekend, as his side fell to a 1-0 defeat against fellow relegation-threatened Fortuna Sittard.
Three points in that outing would have seen Willem climb out of the bottom three and leapfrog their hosts last Sunday, and that missed opportunity may be damaging to the belief in the squad.
Alkmaar will be a tough test for Willem, with the fourth-placed side travelling to the Koning Willem II Stadion looking to bounce back from an exit in the Europa Conference League in midweek.
Pascal Jansen's side needed to turn around a 2-1 deficit from their first leg against Norwegian outfit Bodo/Glimt, but on Thursday they could only manage a 2-2 draw meaning that they were dumped out of the competition at the last 16 stage.
Sunday's visitors will also be determined to return to winning ways domestically after a 1-0 defeat against FC Twente last weekend, in a game that produced very few chances on goal.
Alkmaar's goal difference is much better than the teams below them in the table, and with their top-seven finish almost guaranteed, Jansen will want his side to be looking upwards to finish as high as possible and at least equal their third-placed finish from last year.
This weekend's visitors were comfortable 4-1 winners over Willem in the reverse fixture, with goals coming from Dani de Wit, an own goal from Timon Wellenreuther and a late brace from Albert Gudmundsson.
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Team News
Young Willem midfielder Wesley Spieringhs remains doubtful for Sunday's clash and is almost certain to miss out due to injury, having been sidelined since the beginning of September.
Thijs Oosting will also be absent from Willem's squad as he continues to recover from a knee injury, with his expected return date to be towards the beginning of next month.
Striker Jizz Hornkamp, who arrived at the club from FC Den Bosch in January, is certain to lead the line for the hosts, looking for his second goal for Willem after finding the back of the net on his debut.
Alkmaar also have some injuries to manage with Fredrik Midtsjo, Jelle Duin and Yusuf Barasi all long-term absentees who will continue to be sidelined.
Evangelos Pavlidis and Jesper Karlsson offer a big attacking threat for Alkmaar, with 23 goals between them this season, and they could lead the line as a striking duo on Sunday.
De Wit is likely to support the attacking duo from a number 10 role in midfield, while Tijani Reijnders and Jordy Clasie offer more protection from midfield for the back four.
Willem II possible starting lineup:
Wellenreuther; Kohn, Heerkens, Dammers, Owusu; Saddiki, Crowley; Svensson, Saglam, Kohlert; Hornkamp
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Jensen; Wijndal, Indi, Beukema, Witry; Clasie, Reijnders, Sugawara; De Wit; Pavlidis, Karlsson
We say: Willem II 0-2 AZ Alkmaar
Willem have failed to show much chance of picking up points this season, especially with a poor record in front of goal particularly in recent weeks, which is likely to continue on Sunday.
Alkmaar will be determined to bounce back after a difficult start to March, and they will feel playing a side threatened by relegation is a good opportunity to do so.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 59.19%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 18.59%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.46%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-0 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
