RB Leipzig will be looking to tighten their grip on a top-four spot in the Bundesliga when they travel to VfL Bochum on Sunday.
The visitors have maintained their fine start to 2022 with back-to-back victories both domestically and in Europe over the past week, whilst the hosts extended their unbeaten run last weekend to pull further away from danger.
Match preview
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After the highs of a thrilling 4-2 victory over Bayern Munich on the previous weekend, Bochum followed it up with another point when they travelled to Stuttgart in a big relegation clash at the bottom of the Bundesliga last Saturday.
A poor first-half display from both sides was followed by an entertaining second 45, which saw Thomas Reis's men fall behind courtesy of an own goal from Armel Bella-Kotchap.
Eduard Lowen rescued a point in the final seconds of the game though, with the midfielder netting from the penalty spot to help his side extend their strong run of form to five matches unbeaten in all competitions.
With Stuttgart occupying a spot in the relegation places, the draw ensured that Die Unabsteigbaren maintained their healthy 10-point advantage over the automatic drop zone, with Augsburg's defeat to Freiburg meaning that Bochum moved seven points clear of the relegation playoff spot.
Following three wins and a draw at their Vonovia Ruhrstadion since the turn of the year, including the miraculous triumph over Bayern two weeks ago, Reis and his side will possess plenty of confidence in picking up another positive result against a tough opponent on Sunday.
However, after losing all six of their previous meetings with Leipzig in various competitions over recent years, avoiding defeat against the European hopefuls remains a tough ask.
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Meanwhile, the past week has seen Leipzig continue their fine start to 2022 by thumping Hertha Berlin 6-1 in the capital last weekend, before travelling to Spain to defeat Real Sociedad 3-1 on Thursday night, and 5-3 on aggregate, to progress to the last 16 of the Europa League.
That fine return of goals scored over the last seven days means that Domenico Tedesco's side have now netted an impressive 26 since the turn of the year already, in only nine fixtures.
It also continues their fine form under the former Spartak Moscow boss, with Die Roten Bullen winning eight and losing just two of his 12 matches at the helm, since taking over from Jesse Marsch prior to the winter break.
The back-to-back victories have not only extended their overall success under the 36-year-old, but have also addressed the away-day woes endured by Leipzig for much of the campaign up to the point of his arrival.
Having won just one of their previous 10 matches away from the Red Bull Arena in the Bundesliga prior to last weekend, Leipzig brushed that statistic to one side with the thumping of Hertha, and will now look to make it three consecutive victories on the road when they travel to a stubborn Bochum side on Sunday.
Should Tedesco's men manage to make it three in a row, then they will hope to pull clear of Hoffenheim and Freiburg directly below them in the table at the time of writing, with the duo maintaining an equal points tally with Leipzig by recording victories of their own on matchday 23.
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Team News
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Having missed the draw with Stuttgart last weekend through suspension, Bochum midfielder Elvis Rexhbecaj is likely to return to their starting lineup on Sunday.
Either Milos Pantovic or Patrick Osterhage should drop out for the German, in an otherwise unchanged starting lineup from Reis.
Simon Zoller is the only confirmed absentee due to a long-term knee injury, although Danny Blum and Paul Grave are doubts due to muscle and shoulder injuries respectively.
As for the visitors, Angelino returned from a brief illness to make an appearance from the substitutes bench in midweek, so after missing the win over Hertha, he is likely to regain a spot in the starting 11 on Sunday.
Tedesco will be without the impressive young defender Josko Gvardiol though, with the 20-year-old serving a one-match suspension for the trip to Bochum.
Marcel Halstenberg remains the only other absentee though, meaning Tedesco has a number of decisions to make with an array of options at his disposal.
Dani Olmo, Christopher Nkunku and Andre Silva have all been amongst the goals of late, but following an impressive display in the capital last weekend, Yussuf Poulsen could regain a starting spot ahead of Silva.
VfL Bochum possible starting lineup:
Riemann; Gamboa, Bella-Kotchap, Leitsch, Soares; Rexhbecaj, Losilla, Osterhage; Antwi-Adjei, Locadia, Holtmann
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Klostermann, Orban, Simakan; Henrichs, Haidara, Laimer, Angelino; Nkunku, Olmo; Poulsen
We say: VfL Bochum 1-2 RB Leipzig
Despite Bochum's solid form of late, Leipzig should possess too much for them in this meeting on Sunday, with the visitors in fine form since the turn of the year, particularly in front of goal.
We believe the hosts will push them all the way though, with Reis's side proving a tough side to beat in recent weeks, as Bayern found out in the last fixture at the Vonovia Ruhrstadion two weeks ago.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 64.49%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 17.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.21%) and 1-3 (7.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.99%), while for a VfL Bochum win it was 2-1 (4.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
