Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 44.03%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 28.66% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (8.4%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 (9.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.