Palmeiras begin the defence of their Copa Libertadores title on Wednesday when they travel to Estadio Monumental "U" in Peru to face Universitario in their opening match in Group A.
Los Merengues won their first match of the season in the Peruvian Primera Division last Thursday while Palmeiras have gone without a goal in their past two games after drawing 0-0 against Botafogo on Sunday.
Match preview
© Reuters
Universitario are the most decorated team in the history of Peruvian football, winning the domestic league 26 times, though they have not got their hands on any silverware over the past seven seasons.
They will hope the return of a familiar face as manager can change their fortunes and give fans something to cheer about.
Angel Comizzo is back in charge of the team he helped guide to the domestic league title in 2013 and his side will try to cause a few surprises after being knocked out in the second qualifying round of this competition last season.
Universitario were able to qualify directly into the group stage this time around by winning Fase 1 of the Peruvian Primera Division in 2020.
Palmeiras are coming off a memorable last season that saw them capture the Copa do Brasil and the Campeonato Paulista before capping it all off with their second Copa Libertadores title in January.
Portuguese manager Abel Ferreira has quickly turned around the fortunes of the team from Sao Paulo, but he will know if he is to remain at the helm they must keep winning.
While last season was only the second time they have won this tournament, Palmeiras will be full of confidence heading into the group stage.
The Palestra Alviverde have made it to the knockout stage of this competition in each of the past five seasons.
Palmeiras were especially dominant in this competition their last time out, losing only one of their seven games in the knockout stage, scoring 16 goals while conceding just four en route to the championship.
Universitario Peruvian Primera Division form:
- D
- L
- W
Palmeiras Paulista A1 form:
- D
- W
- W
- D
- L
- D
Palmeiras form (all competitions):
- D
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
Team News
© ReutersUniversitario centre-forward Alexander Succar is still recovering from surgery to his Achilles tendon.
Goalkeeper Aamet Calderon is out with a ruptured Achilles tendon, and left-back Ivan Santillan will miss this game with a knee injury.
Attacking midfielder Hernan Novick has two goals in his side's opening three games in league play, while goalkeeper Jose Carvallo picked up his first shutout of the season in a 1-0 win over San Martin last week.
Raphael Veiga has three goals in his last four games in all competitions for the Brazilians, though they each came in a losing effort at the Supercopa de Brasil final and in the Recopa Sudamericana.
Paraguay national team captain Gustavo Gomez anchors a stingy defence along with Matias Vina, while Weverton was exceptional in goal in this competition last season with eight clean sheets.
Universitario possible starting lineup:
Carvallo; Valverde, Quina, Alonso, Chavez; Barreto, Alfageme, Urruti, Novick, Quintero; Gutierrez
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Rocha, Luan, Gomez, Vina; de Paula, Danilo, Wesley, Veiga, Breno; Rony
We say: Universitario 0-3 Palmeiras
Palmeiras know what it takes to do well in this competition having reached at least the quarter-finals or further in each of the past three seasons, while Universitario are here to gain more experience and could be in for a rude awakening facing the defending champions, who had four players named to the team of the tournament in 2020.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 44.51%. A win for Universitario had a probability of 28.87% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.9%) and 0-2 (8.24%). The likeliest Universitario win was 1-0 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
