Bundesliga outfit Union Berlin will be bidding to reach the semi-finals of the DFB-Pokal when they welcome second-tier side St Pauli to Berlin on Tuesday night.
The home side beat Hertha Berlin 3-2 in the previous round to book their spot in the last eight, while St Pauli shocked Borussia Dortmund in the last round in the middle of January.
Match preview
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Union Berlin finished seventh in the Bundesliga last season and have again impressed during the 2021-22 campaign, picking up 37 points from 24 matches to occupy seventh position in the table.
Urs Fischer's side will enter Tuesday's contest off the back of a 3-1 win over Mainz in the Bundesliga on Saturday, which proved to be their first victory since a 2-1 success over Borussia Monchengladbach on January 22.
Union Berlin have never won the DFB-Pokal, but they reached the final of the competition back in 2001, losing to Schalke 04, and they have an excellent chance to reach the last four of this season's tournament.
The Iron Ones have had to win three matches to reach this stage of the tournament, beating Turkgucu Munchen 1-0, Waldhof Mannheim 3-1 and Hertha Berlin 3-2 to advance to the quarter-finals.
Union Berlin suffered a 3-2 defeat to St Pauli when the two teams last locked horns in the second tier of German football in February 2019, but the Bundesliga outfit were 4-1 winners in their last meeting in Berlin.
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St Pauli, meanwhile, stunned holders Dortmund in the last round of the German Cup, recording a 2-1 victory in front of their own supporters to advance to the final eight.
Timo Schultz's side have operated in the second tier of German football since their relegation from the top flight in 2011, and they finished 10th in 2. Bundesliga last term.
St Pauli have impressed this season, though, claiming 44 points from their 24 matches, which has left them third in the table, just one point behind leaders Werder Bremen on the same number of games.
Schultz's team will enter Tuesday's contest off the back of a 3-1 victory at Ingolstadt on Saturday, and they have now won their last two matches on their travels, which should mean that confidence is high ahead of this match.
As well as Dortmund, St Pauli have beaten Magdeburg and Dynamo Dresden in this season's German Cup, and it would be some story if they managed to eliminate another top-flight side to reach the final four.
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Team News
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Union Berlin's squad is in excellent shape at the moment, with the Bundesliga outfit expected to have a full selection of players available for Tuesday's last-eight affair.
Head coach Fischer will consider making changes from their league match against Mainz at the weekend, and it would not be a surprise to see Taiwo Awoniyi earn a spot in the starting XI, with the 24-year-old coming off the bench to register in the team's last league game.
There could also be a change in midfield, with Kevin Mohwald potentially starting, while Bastian Oczipka could be introduced as the left-sided wing-back for the hosts.
As for St Pauli, central defender Philipp Ziereis was replaced at the interval against Ingolstadt on Saturday, so there could be a spot at the back for Luca Zander on Tuesday.
There are not expected to be any surprises when it comes to the away side's set-up, with a 4-3-1-2 formation likely to remain in place, with Guido Burgstaller playing at centre-forward.
Head coach Schultz will be wary of overloading those that played on Saturday, though, so Finn Becker and Maximilian Dittgen could also be in contention to start here.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Jaeckel, Knoche, Baumgartl; Khedira; Trimmel, Mohwald, Promel, Oczipka; Awoniyi, Becker
St Pauli possible starting lineup:
Vasilj; Dzwigala, Zander, Medic, Paqarada; Irvine, Aremu, Hartel; Makienok, Kyrereh, Burgstaller
We say: Union Berlin 2-1 St Pauli
St Pauli will be full of confidence after beating Dortmund in the last round of the competition, but we are finding it difficult to back the visitors here. It would certainly not be a shock to see St Pauli triumph, but we believe that the home side's extra quality will allow them to win this game to progress to the semi-finals.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 37.31% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.77%) and 2-0 (5.77%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Union Berlin in this match.
