Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zorya Luhansk win with a probability of 52.18%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Obolon Kyiv had a probability of 22.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zorya Luhansk win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.19%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Obolon Kyiv win it was 0-1 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zorya Luhansk would win this match.