Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inhulets win with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Mariupol had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inhulets win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Mariupol win was 1-0 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.