Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 55.25%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for LNZ Cherkasy had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.99%) and 1-2 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a LNZ Cherkasy win it was 1-0 (7.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtar Donetsk would win this match.