Turkmenistan and Lebanon face off on in South Korea Wednesday, as the World Cup Qualifying groups in Asia continue to take shape.
With 10 points from the opening four games, Lebanon sit level with group leaders South Korea, while their opponents occupy third spot with six points from five matches.
Match preview
Turkmenistan fell to a comfortable defeat last time out in their first game of this round of qualifying fixtures, as they took on South Korea.
Hwang Ui-jo netted a brace alongside goals from Nam Tae-hee, Kim Young-gwon and Kwon Chang-hoon, condemning Rowsen Mudahow's men to a 5-0 defeat in Goyang.
However, the Greens did have a fairly positive start to the qualifying campaign in 2019, collecting six points from their opening four games.
Those points came from two separate 2-0 victories over Sri Lanka, with Wahyt Orazsahedow and Arslanmyrat Amanow netting the goals in their first game.
Mudahow's side then won by the same scoreline in their final game before this year's round of fixtures, as Abdy Basimow and Altymyrat Annadurdyyew got on the scoresheet.
They will now look to spring somewhat of a surprise and record their third victory of the campaign on Wednesday, with a win moving them one point behind Lebanon.
Meanwhile, their opponents will look to extend that gap between themselves and the chasing pack, while also increasing the pressure on South Korea at the top of the group.
Lebanon returned to qualifying action with a narrow 3-2 win over Sri Lanka on Saturday.
Ahmed Waseem Razeek opened the scoring for their opponents in the 10th minute, but Joan Oumari immediately equalised and a Mohamed Jalal Kdouh finish alongside Oumari's second of the game turned the encounter on its head, while Razeek's second on the hour mark was not enough to spark a comeback.
With eight goals and three wins from their opening four matches, while only conceding three goals at the other end, Jamal Taha's side sit level on points with South Korea, only trailing on goal difference, and they will look to potentially overtake the group leaders with another victory in Goyang.
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Team News
Turkmenistan will be led by captain Arslanmyrat Amanow, who boasts the most caps in the squad with 47 international appearances.
The midfielder also leads the way for goals, having found the net 13 times for his nation.
Altymyrat Annadurdyyew will also feature in their attack, having scored six times in 20 international outings.
Meanwhile, the defensive line should be led by Mekan Saparow, who has 27 international appearances to his name.
Lebanon boast a slightly stronger collection of talent, with defender Joan Oumari plying his trade in Japan for FC Tokyo, while midfielder Felix Michel Melki is currently on loan in the Norweigan top flight from Swedish outfit AIK.
Mohamed Jalal Kdouh should continue to lead the line after his goal in the victory over Sri Lanka, while forwards Rabih Ataya and Hilal El-Helwe are also expected to keep their places in the front line.
Turkmenistan possible starting lineup:
Charyyev; Babajanow, Saparow, Khalmammedov, Guychmyrat; Amanow, Atayew, Ballakov, Tursunow; Annadurdyyew, Titow
Lebanon possible starting lineup:
Khalil; El Zein, Oumari, Mansour, Sabra; Haidar, Matar, Melki; Jalal Kdouh, Ataya, El-Helwe
We say: Turkmenistan 0-2 Lebanon
We see Lebanon continuing their strong start to qualifying with a fairly comfortable victory on Wednesday.
Other than South Korea, Taha's men have asserted dominance over every side in their group, and we expect them to outclass a slightly inferior Turkmenistan outfit.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkmenistan win with a probability of 40.96%. A win for Lebanon had a probability of 33.11% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Turkmenistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Lebanon win was 0-1 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Turkmenistan would win this match.
