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Troyes
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 32
Apr 17, 2022 at 2pm UK
Stade de l'Aube
Strasbourg

Troyes
1 - 1
Strasbourg

Tardieu (85' pen.)
Dingome (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Diallo (56' pen.)
Djiku (45'), Diarra (61')

Preview: Troyes vs. Strasbourg - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Troyes and Strasbourg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Aiming to bounce back from their first defeat in five, Troyes take on top four contenders Strasbourg at Stade de l'Aube on Sunday.

While the hosts were beaten by Monaco and remain in need of points to secure their Ligue 1 status, last week's draw with Lyon keeps their visitors on the coat-tails of the top three.


Match preview

Troyes' Yoann Touzghar celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 27, 2022© Reuters

Returning from Stade Louis II empty-handed last Sunday, Troyes were unable to build on Ike Ugbo's 39th-minute equaliser against Monaco and were ultimately beaten 2-1 by Phillipe Clement's side.

As a result, they sit 15th in the Ligue 1 standings and are yet to ensure safety from relegation, with just five points separating them from the promotion/demotion playoff place.

Head coach Bruno Irles had previously seen his team put together a five-match unbeaten run, during which time they kept three clean sheets in three valuable victories, so the club from the Champagne region could still have reason to celebrate at the season's end.

Promoted as Ligue 2 champions last year, their adaptation to the elite level has not always run smoothly, but Troyes have now scored in each of their last eight games - the longest such run they have managed this season - and are building a record at Stade de l'Aube that could ultimately keep them safe.

Ahead of Strasbourg's arrival on Sunday, they have gone unbeaten in four previous home fixtures against teams in the top five, and they also held their latest opponents to a 1-1 draw in Alsace back at the start of the campaign.

Strasbourg's Habib Diallo celebrates with teammates on December 5, 2021© Reuters

After finishing 15th last term, Strasbourg have continued to surprise observers and perhaps even their own faithful by contending for European football next season.

Commendable consistency has seen Les Bleu et Blanc lose just once in their last 13 league games, following a 1-1 draw at home to Lyon last Sunday.

Only Karl Toko Ekambi's 90th-minute equaliser denied Julien Stephan's men all three points at Stade de la Meinau, and they sit just four points adrift of an automatic Champions League spot with seven games to go.

Lyon's late leveller may have stopped Troyes posting a 13th clean sheet of the season, but they boast the joint-best total in that regard and pose a particularly tough nut to crack.

Therefore, the Alsatians will be confident of keeping in touch with Rennes and Marseille just above them in the Ligue 1 table, as the pursuit of their European dream continues.

Troyes Ligue 1 form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L

Strasbourg Ligue 1 form:
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D



Team News

Rennes manager Julien Stephan pictured in December 2020© Reuters

Julien Stephan named only six men on the bench against Lyon last week, due to a number of absentees, and players including Adrien Thomasson, Maxime Le Marchand and Sanjin Prcic are all unlikely to feature for Strasbourg on Sunday.

Despite scoring just four times in their last six outings, the visitors are set to pair former France international Kevin Gameiro with Ludovic Ajorque up front once more.

Their side should be similar to that which started last time out, but Aston Villa defender Frederic Guilbert - currently on a season-long loan at the club - is in contention to replace Anthony Caci at wing-back.

Meanwhile, veteran centre-back Adil Rami will hope to be back in the fold for Troyes after missing out last weekend, but Erik Palmer-Brown stands ready to deputise in the hosts' back three again if required.

Bruno Irles also has doubts concerning Yasser Larouci and Hyun-jun Suk, but Canada striker Ike Ugbo is fit to lead the line up front if Lebo Mothiba is unavailable.

Troyes possible starting lineup:
Moulin; Salmier, Palmer-Brown, Biancone; Kabore, Tardieu, Kouame, Conte; Chavalerin, Dingome; Ugbo

Strasbourg possible starting lineup:
Sels; Djiku, Nyamsi, Perrin; Caci, Bellegarde, Aholou, Sissoko, Lienard; Gameiro, Ajorque


SM words green background

We say: Troyes 0-1 Strasbourg

They have not been finding the net on a frequent basis lately, but the sheer solidity of Strasbourg under Julien Stephan means that another Ligue 1 shut-out is probable this weekend.

Troyes are far from prolific themselves - scoring at a rate of less than one per game this term - so their hunt for points to ensure survival will roll on until a midweek clash with fellow strugglers Clermont.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Strasbourg win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 31.5% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Strasbourg win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.82%) and 0-2 (7.7%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-0 (11.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Troyes vs Strasbourg

Troyes
16.7%
Draw
30.0%
Strasbourg
53.3%
30
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