Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 39.46%. A win for UD Oliveirense had a probability of 35.57% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.22%). The likeliest UD Oliveirense win was 2-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boavista would win this match.