Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 42.99%. A win for Academico de Viseu had a probability of 31.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (7.26%). The likeliest Academico de Viseu win was 1-0 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.