Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 48.56%. A win for Luzern had a probability of 28.76% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.34%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Luzern win was 1-2 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Gallen would win this match.