Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hatayspor win with a probability of 61.94%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Yeni Malatyaspor had a probability of 15.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hatayspor win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.89%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a Yeni Malatyaspor win it was 0-1 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hatayspor would win this match.