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Stevenage
League Two | Gameweek 42
Apr 15, 2022 at 3pm UK
Lamex Stadium
Rochdale

Stevenage
1 - 0
Rochdale

Cuthbert (48')
Lines (87')
FT(HT: 0-0)

O'Connell (90+1')

Preview: Stevenage vs. Rochdale - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's League Two clash between Stevenage and Rochdale, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Stevenage will continue to try and fight against the threat of relegation on Friday when they welcome Rochdale to Broadhall Way.

The visitors have created a 10-point gap between themselves and the bottom two, and head into the game on the back of a three-match undefeated streak.


Match preview

Crystal Palace's Jack Wells-Morrison in action with Stevenage's Jake Reeves, July 23, 2021© Reuters

Stevenage are currently taking up one of the two relegation spaces as they are 23rd in the League Two table, placing huge pressure on each of the remaining fixtures.

However, they have a game in hand on the team directly above, and it is only goal difference that separates them from safety.

A victory on Friday could see them overtake both Oldham Athletic and Barrow, but considering only three teams have conceded more goals all season, they will need to tighten things up at the back.

Their defensive qualities were on display last weekend though, as they kept a clean sheet when defeating Colchester United 2-0, which ended an 11-game run without a win.

Goals from Jamie Reid and Luke Norris proved to be the difference, and even a late red card to the latter was not enough to stop them from earning a crucial three points.

Rochdale were also able to earn a victory in their most recent outing, with Conor Grant scoring the only goal of the game to defeat Walsall.

Robbie Stockdale's men have been defensively impressive as of late, stringing together a three-game run of clean sheets which have helped them remain undefeated in that period.

The Dale have enjoyed two victories and a goalless draw throughout those games, instilling plenty of confidence into the team who have been pushing up the table.

Right now they are 16th, but a victory has the potential of moving them into 14th if those directly above them slip up this weekend.

However, because they are one of four teams on 47 points, a defeat on Friday could easily see them slip down the division.

Stevenage League Two form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W

Rochdale League Two form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W



Team News

Gillingham manager Steve Evans on December 7, 2021© Reuters

Stevenage will be without Norris this weekend after he was sent off last weekend, meaning there will be at least one change to the starting XI in an attacking sense.

Steve Evans made one alteration for their game against Colchester, and after Reid scored in that game there is a good chance he will retain his place.

Unlike the hosts, Rochdale typically play with three at the back, and that is something that will likely continue for this game after keeping another clean sheet last weekend.

The Dale are without James Ball, Tahvon Campbell and Joel Coleman, who all have long-term injuries, while Max Taylor is someone that is close to making a return.

Paul Downing was able to make his comeback last weekend though after his injury, and he was immediately slotted back into the team.

Stevenage possible starting lineup:
Pym; Coker, Vancooten, Cuthbert, Wildin; Taylor, Read, Bostwick; Reid, List, Andrade

Rochdale possible starting lineup:
Lynch; Downing, O'Connell, Dorsett; O'Keefe, Kelly, Dooley, Clark; Grant, Cashman, Charman


SM words green background

We say: Stevenage 1-2 Rochdale

This Friday brings a crucial game for Stevenage in their quest for survival, and after winning last weekend the team should be full of confidence heading into this one.

Unfortunately, they are meeting a Rochdale team in fine form, and that could lead to the visitors securing three points from this one.






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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rochdale win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 36.14% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rochdale win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 1-0 (9.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.


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