Sunday will feature a first-place showdown in the MLS Western Conference as Sporting Kansas City take on the Seattle Sounders from Children's Mercy Park.
KC are only a point above the Rave Green in the standings right now, though Seattle do have one game in hand on the Wizards.
Match preview
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Beginning this month with a 4-0 defeat to Los Angeles FC did not sit well with Peter Vermes or his players, who have responded well since that match, with back-to-back shutouts as they have climbed back into first in the West.
Last week, they had about as dominant a performance as we have seen from them all year, with more than 60% possession, a 90% pass accuracy and scoring on four of their eight shots on target, while allowing none against Minnesota United.
Their lead atop the table is very slender, and given that the Colorado Rapids and the Sounders have both played one fewer game than them, KC will want to put as much distance between themselves and their nearest competitors.
Two or more has been the recipe for success this season for the Wizards in MLS, as in the number of goals that they usually need to win, with all 13 of their victories on the year coming when they have scored multiple goals.
Second-half adjustments have significantly impacted their success in 2021, outscoring their opponents 16-8 this year after an hour of action.
If they have a lead going into the interval, Kansas City are virtually unbeatable, going 7-0-1 when holding an advantage at the half, but conversely, they are 3-3-2 when trailing after 45 minutes.
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Some missed opportunities came back to haunt the Sounders on Wednesday as they dropped a 3-2 decision to Leon in the final of the Leagues Cup.
Brian Schmetzer and his side do not have any time to dwell on that disappointment however, with a big three points up for grabs in Kansas City.
The Sounders have seen their lead atop the table evaporate over the past few weeks, losing two of their last three league fixtures, including a 1-0 defeat to Real Salt Lake where they could only muster two shots on target.
Despite that setback, Seattle have looked quite comfortable away from home this year, with a record of 7-7-2, recording fewer away losses on the road than any side in MLS.
While their opponents on Sunday have never lost consecutive matches, the Sounders have rarely followed up a defeat with three points, having achieved that feat only twice so far this year.
One of the many things that Seattle do well is being able to maintain their composure in tight matches, winning eight MLS fixtures this year by a single goal, the second-most in the league.
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Team News
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The Wizards are still missing Felipe Hernandez, who is out for personal reasons, Jaylin Lindsey has a hamstring issue and Alan Pulido is questionable with a knee injury.
Daniel Salloi is third in the Gold Boot race, scoring his 13th of the year last week, while Johnny Russell is one of only two MLS players with 30 goals and 30 assists in the regular season since 2018, with the other one being Carlos Vela.
Khiry Shelton may only have two goals so far in this campaign, but he seems to bring this team good luck when he starts as they are 16-4-6 when he is in the starting 11, while goalkeeper Tim Melia has set an MLS record by posting 10 wins for the seventh consecutive time in the regular season.
The Sounders will be without Jordan Morris, who has an ACL injury, while Jordy Delem will not feature because of an ACL tear.
Raul Ruidiaz is second in the goalscoring race, with 14 strikes this year, just one behind Ola Kamara of DC United, while Joao Paulo is tied for eighth in the league in assists with eight, while also ranking 11th in chances created with 51.
Former KC midfielder Kelyn Rowe along with defender Yeimar Gomez Andrade are the only Sounders players to feature in every MLS game this year.
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Zusi, llie, Fontas, Martins; Barber, Mauri, Espinoza, Duke; Russell, Salloi
Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:
Frei; O'Neill, Arreaga, Tolo; Benezet, Bruin, Paulo, A. Roldan; Montero, C. Roldan; Ruidiaz
We say: Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Seattle Sounders
KC handled a very different-looking Seattle side who were missing several veterans through injury in their first meeting of the season back in July.
While both teams will have most of their best players available, KC have had more time to prepare for this critical match, and they have had the Sounders number at home, going unbeaten in their last six games played against them at Children's Mercy Park.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 56.95%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Seattle Sounders had a probability of 20.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Seattle Sounders win it was 0-1 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
