The formula for Real Salt Lake is simple heading into Decision Day on Sunday at Children's Mercy Park, a win versus Sporting Kansas City will clinch their place in the postseason.
For Kansas City to clinch first place in the Western Conference, they need a positive result and some help as they are a point back of the Seattle Sounders, while RSL are two points behind the Los Angeles Galaxy for the final playoff spot.
Match preview
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This may go down as the most unpredictable regular season in MLS history, with so many lead changes in every game and even more lead changes for first place between the Wizards and the Rave Green.
Speaking of unpredictable, no one could have guessed that Kansas City would drop two consecutive fixtures for the first time all year, but on Wednesday, they were too slow from the opening whistle and perhaps took Austin a little too lightly, and the Verde-and-Black took full advantage with a pair of goals in the opening 22 minutes.
Silly mistakes cost Peter Vermes' side on Wednesday as they were chasing the game from the get-go, conceding in the opening minute and allowing a needless set-piece goal later on, and despite having 65% of the possession, they were only able to put one shot past Brad Stuver in the Austin goal.
Vermes was irritated by how his side performed after the match, talking about the importance of internal motivation and needing to fight harder, while eliminating the giveaways.
Even though they have struggled defensively in their previous two outings, they have rarely had any trouble in front of goal, especially at Children's Mercy Park, scoring in a club-record 31 straight regular-season encounters there dating back to August 10, 2019.
Sporting head into their match on Sunday one-win shy of tying the team record for wins in a regular-season during the non-shootout era (2000) as they have a chance to capture their third first-place finish in the Western Conference (2018, 2020) over the past four years.
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With seven straight wins at home heading into their final two-game homestand of the season, Pablo Mastroeni had to be feeling good about his team's chances to earn some points and clinch a playoff berth.
Instead, another unpredictable thing transpired as Claret and Cobalt lost twice at Rio Tinto Stadium in less than a week, and as a result, they need a victory on Sunday or their season is finished.
On Wednesday, they came out very determined with the bulk of the possession throughout the match (66%), but despite firing seven shots on target, they could not beat Portland Timbers keeper Steve Clark until the 88th minute from a penalty by Albert Rusnak.
Defensively, it has to be a concern that they have given up seven goals on nine targeted efforts in their previous two games, and they have to be a lot better in order to upset KC.
Conceding goals on the road has been a major trouble spot for this side, allowing 33 heading into this encounter, though they have not lost in their past two visits to Children's Mercy Park, allowing just a single goal each time.
With the table so tight throughout much of the campaign, one mistake or one moment of brilliance can make the difference between winning and losing, and RSL know that all too well as they have been in plenty of tight affairs, going without a draw in 18 straight games going back to the beginning of August, and coming up short many times, losing 11 matches by a single goal.
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Team News
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Tim Melia can earn his 100th victory for Sporting in all competitions, and if Luis Martins features again on Sunday, he will become only the second defender in team history to play in all 34 regular season matches, with the other one being Graham Zusi in 2018.
Jaylin Lindsey remains out with a hamstring problem, Alan Pulido has a knee injury and Felipe Hernandez is suspended.
Johnny Russell has 71 combined goals for the Wizards since 2018 (40 goals and 31 assists), which is the third-most in MLS behind only Carlos Vela (57 goals and 34 assists) and Josef Martinez (69 goals, 11 assists).
Zack Farnsworth and Toni Datkovic will not play for RSL in this critical encounter as they both have undisclosed injuries.
Damir Kreilach is tied for sixth in MLS with 15 goals, while his teammates Aaron Herrera and Albert Rusnak are tied for fifth in MLS with 11 assists apiece.
On Wednesday, Justin Meram made his 50th appearance for the club, replacing Andrew Brody in the second half in their defeat to the Timbers.
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Martins, Fontas, Isimat-Mirin, Zusi; Barber, llie, Espinoza; Shelton, Salloi, Russell
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Herrera, Holt, Glad; Besler, Luiz, Ruiz, Julio; Rusnak; Rubin, Kreilach
We say: Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Real Salt Lake
RSL seem to have lost some of their confidence from a few weeks ago, and they rely a little too heavily on Rusnak and Kreilach, who can only do so much, while David Ochoa has not been there to make the big save when they need it.
Peter Vermes was as mad as we have seen him all year following their defeat to Austin, but this team have the mental toughness to overcome their current struggles, and they always seem to pick themselves up when they are down.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 62.62%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 18.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.98%) and 3-1 (7.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.21%), while for a Real Salt Lake win it was 1-2 (4.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.
