Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maribor win with a probability of 41.26%. A win for NK Domzale had a probability of 33.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maribor win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest NK Domzale win was 1-0 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maribor would win this match.