Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reggina win with a probability of 42.64%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reggina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 0-1 (9.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Reggina in this match.