Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 52.48%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for FeralpiSalo had a probability of 22.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a FeralpiSalo win it was 0-1 (7.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pisa would win this match.