Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mantova win with a probability of 37.25%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 35.96% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mantova win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.