Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tenerife win with a probability of 43.14%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Malaga had a probability of 27.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tenerife win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.73%) and 2-1 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.18%), while for a Malaga win it was 0-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tenerife would win this match.