Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 42.1%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 30.58% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (9.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ponferradina would win this match.

Result
Ponferradina	Draw	Cartagena
42.1%	27.32%	30.58%

Both teams to score 48.72%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.42%

56.58%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.44%

77.56%

Ponferradina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.47%

26.53%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.26%

61.74%

Cartagena Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.31%

33.68%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.66%

70.34%

Score Analysis

Ponferradina 42.09%

Cartagena 30.58%

Draw 27.31%

Ponferradina	Draw	Cartagena
1-0 @ 11.85% 2-1 @ 8.56% 2-0 @ 7.87% 3-1 @ 3.79% 3-0 @ 3.48% 3-2 @ 2.06% 4-1 @ 1.26% 4-0 @ 1.15% Other @ 2.08% Total : 42.09%	1-1 @ 12.9% 0-0 @ 8.94% 2-2 @ 4.66% Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.31%	0-1 @ 9.73% 1-2 @ 7.02% 0-2 @ 5.29% 1-3 @ 2.55% 0-3 @ 1.92% 2-3 @ 1.69% Other @ 2.39% Total : 30.58%