Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cadiz win with a probability of 36.38%. A win for Malaga had a probability of 32.68% and a draw had a probability of 30.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cadiz win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.26%) and 2-1 (6.96%). The likeliest Malaga win was 0-1 (13.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.