Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 42.38%. A win for Racing de Santander had a probability of 28.99% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.4%) and 2-1 (8.21%). The likeliest Racing de Santander win was 0-1 (10.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burgos would win this match.