Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Amorebieta win with a probability of 42.8%. A draw had a probability of 29.8% and a win for Cartagena had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Amorebieta win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.86%) and 2-1 (7.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.23%), while for a Cartagena win it was 0-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.