Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Mirren win with a probability of 57.94%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Forfar Athletic had a probability of 19.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Mirren win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.19%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Forfar Athletic win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Mirren would win this match.