Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Kholood win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Al Riyadh had a probability of 31.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Kholood win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Al Riyadh win was 0-1 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al Kholood would win this match.