In the final game of Serie A's opening round on Monday night, last season's runners-up AC Milan visit a Sampdoria side under new management.
After enjoying a spectacular resurgence in 2020 the first half of this year has been less kind to the Rossoneri, who will hope to get their campaign off to a winning start in Liguria.
Match preview
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If 2020-21 was a season of missed opportunities - as Milan faltered when leading Serie A at the halfway stage and crashed out of the Coppa Italia and Europa League's latter stages - then the chance to make amends starts this week, with a season-opener at Sampdoria.
Intending to build upon their youth-led revival of recent times, Stefano Pioli's side have added further experience to the inimitable leadership of Zlatan Ibrahimovic during the off-season; recruiting World Cup-winner Olivier Giroud and Euro 2020 champion Alessandro Florenzi to bolster their options.
Of course, the apparently irreplaceable Gianluigi Donnarumma decided to move on, so former Lille goalkeeper Mike Maignan - a Ligue 1 winner last term - also joins as the Rossoneri's last line of defence.
There is an otherwise familiar look about the squad which will visit Marassi on Monday, as Pioli attempts to bridge the 12-point gap to city rivals Inter and compete with several other candidates for a top-four place. There is also the small matter of a return to the Champions League - after an eight-year absence - to look forward to.
More immediately though, Milan must concentrate on a positive start to the domestic season, having lost four of their last five Serie A openers away from home - after previously going unbeaten in 14 such matches.
New recruit Giroud could play a major role in their efforts to do so, following his brace in the final pre-season friendly versus Panathinaikos last week, and the French forward's proven penalty-box nous should make a significant difference throughout the season.
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Another veteran striker, Fabio Quagliarella, was the inspiration for Sampdoria's 3-2 comeback win over Alessandria in the Coppa Italia last Monday, as the Blucerchiati got their competitive campaign underway.
The age-defying Samp skipper's spectacular back-heeled goal was another to add to his extensive career highlights reel and helped set his side up a second round tie against Torino in December.
Now one of Calcio's senior statesmen at 38, Quagliarella was an integral part of former manager Claudio Ranieri's plans as Sampdoria completed a comfortable mid-table campaign in May by finishing ninth in the final standings. However, Ranieri chose to depart at the season's end, so ex-Parma coach Roberto D'Aversa was hired to keep the Ligurians in contention for another top-half finish in 2021-22.
Though his previous role ended in abject failure, as the Crociati sunk into Serie B with barely a whimper, D'Aversa had previously been lauded for his part in Parma's miraculous revival during a more successful first spell at the Tardini. He now inherits a squad featuring several much-admired talents, such as Euros star Mikkel Damsgaard and Atalanta target Morten Thorsby, so expectations will be far higher in Genoa.
Samp have failed to win either home or away to Milan in the past two seasons, with their last league success in the fixture coming at Stadio Luigi Ferraris back in early 2019, so a change to that trend would get D'Aversa off to the best possible start.
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Team News
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Under Stefano Pioli, a familiar 4-2-3-1 formation has become Milan's trademark, so for their first league game of the season he is expected to revert to that setup from the attacking 4-4-2 that started the friendly win against Panathinaikos.
After his Euro 2020 heroics, Simon Kjaer will beat off competition from Alessio Romagnoli to join Fikayo Tomroi at the heart of the defence, while Ismael Bennacer starts in midfield, having suffered an injury-hit campaign last term.
The Algerian international is set to be without his regular engine room partner though, as the influential Franck Kessie suffered a muscle strain on his first day back with the squad after featuring at the Olympics and is out until next month - Sandro Tonali should deputise.
Up front, Rafael Leao is expected to start on the left, with Olivier Giroud at centre-forward after netting three times in pre-season, as Zlatan Ibrahimovic continues his recovery from a knee injury. Giroud's fellow new boy Alessandro Florenzi is not expected to feature on Monday but should be ready for the clash with Cagliari next week.
In contrast, Sampdoria appear to have a clean bill of health heading into the new season, so the starting XI which takes the field against Milan should have a very familiar look to it.
Experienced forward Fabio Quagliarella, who made his 500th league appearance in May, is set to be joined by former Inter winger Antonio Candreva and Danish magician Mikkel Damsgaard in attack.
At the back, meanwhile, Omar Colley and Maya Yoshida are favourites to start in central defence. However, Julian Chabot and Jeison Murillo were selected for the Coppa Italia tie last time out, so either could be relied upon again.
Sampdoria possible starting lineup:
Audero; Bereszynski, Yoshida, Colley, Augello; Thorsby, Ekdal; Candreva, Gabbiadini, Damsgaard; Quagliarella
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Hernandez; Tonali, Bennacer; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao; Giroud
We say: Sampdoria 2-2 AC Milan
Samp were no pushovers last season, and despite Claudio Ranieri's lamented departure, they can cause the top teams trouble again - provided they keep hold of their rising stars.
A settled side can hold Milan to a score draw on Monday night, as the Rossoneri are never quite the same side without Kessie and 'King Zlatan' and could be vulnerable in their first competitive outing of the campaign.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 44.71%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.65%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 2-1 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
