Without a win between them in seventeen Serie A matches combined, Salernitana and Torino convene at Stadio Arechi on Saturday night, hoping to enjoy better fortunes following a fortnight's break.
The two Granata-clad clubs meet in Campania with the hosts rock bottom and bound for relegation, while their visitors are mired in mid-table mediocrity following a recent downturn.
Match preview
© Reuters
After falling victim to lowly Genoa - themselves winless in 25 league games before kickoff - Torino have now gone eight games since tasting victory, as hopes of a top-half finish start to fade.
Despite encouragement from a 1-1 draw against reigning champions Inter a week previously - when they were only denied maximum points by Alexis Sanchez's 93rd-minute equaliser - the Turin outfit were unable to break down obdurate opposition last time out, despite playing with a one-man advantage for over an hour.
That 1-0 loss at Marassi leaves Torino 11th in the Serie A standings - well clear of the relegation zone, but trailing distantly behind the top six - and the slim hope of hauling in 10th-placed Verona is all that is realistically left for Ivan Juric's side this season.
They trail the Scaligeri by seven points - having one game still in hand due to COVID-19 cancellations - but along with this weekend's opponents, Torino are two of three Serie A sides that have failed to win a single league fixture since the start of February.
Not only have a toiling Toro picked up the fewest points during that time (only three), they have now failed to score in eight of their last 11 away matches.
They have also won none of their last five league games against sides stuck at the bottom of the table, so will hope to end that trend when they make the long journey south this weekend.
© Reuters
Nine points adrift of safety with only 10 games left to play, Salernitana's winless streak was extended to a ninth match before the international break, as they were beaten 2-0 by Torino's city rivals Juventus.
Former Toro boss Davide Nicola has overseen what is currently Serie A's joint-longest winless run in home matches (10, alongside Venezia), though following six consecutive defeats at the Arechi, they have actually drawn their last four.
Still in search of a miracle to escape an immediate return to Serie B, the Campanian club have been unable to turn draws into precious wins, and no side has scored fewer goals in the top flight this term - a meagre total of 22 to date.
If anything, their defensive record is even worse, and the concession of 65 goals already - at an average of nearly two-and-a-half per game - means that their demise is surely inevitable.
The Salerno side do still have at least one game in hand on their fellow survival contenders at the foot of the table, but having lost September's reverse fixture 4-0 in Turin, they will need to fare far better on Saturday to start reducing their deficit.
- D
- D
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Torino are set to return to action hampered by several absentees in their midfield department, as Tommaso Pobega misses out through suspension and joins Dennis Praet and Josip Brekalo on the sidelines. The latter - who joined on loan from Wolfsburg last summer - recently tested positive for COVID-19.
Ivan Juric is also without French defender Koffi Djidji, who is still recovering from a hamstring injury, and Pietro Pellegri (knee).
With Pellegri on the treatment table and Antonio Sanabria struggling for form in front of goal, the visitors' star striker will again shoulder the burden up front.
Returning from an unsuccessful international period with Italy, Andrea Belotti (on 96 goals) is close to equalling Francesco Graziani (98) as Il Toro's second-top scorer in Serie A history. However, he has netted only twice in his last 10 league matches against promoted sides.
Another Torino forward is likely to feature on Saturday, as Simone Verdi is a likely starter for Salernitana against his parent club, with Diego Perotti and Lys Mousset being ruled out by injury.
Veteran winger Franck Ribery could also be in contention for a start, but midfielder Mamadou Coulibaly and the defensive trio of Matteo Ruggeri, Stefan Strandberg and Frederic Veseli are expected to miss out.
Joining Verdi in support of skipper Milan Djuric up front, Federico Bonazzoli has defied the Granata's recent form to score four times in his last five games - becoming the hosts' top scorer with seven goals in just 14 starts.
Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Mazzocchi, Dragusin, Fazio, Zortea; L. Coulibaly, Radovanovic; Kastanos, Bonazzoli, Verdi; Djuric
Torino possible starting lineup:
Milinkovic-Savic; Buongiorno, Bremer, Izzo; Singo, Ricci, Mandragora, Vojvoda; Lukic, Pjaca; Belotti
We say: Salernitana 0-1 Torino
If not now, then when? Torino must take advantage of this opportunity to bring a halt to their worrying decline, and they have sufficient tools at their disposal to edge past a desperate Salernitana side.
While a similar margin of victory to their four-goal success in the reverse fixture is unlikely, the visitors tend to give little away at the back and may only need to score once.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torino win with a probability of 49.87%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 25.3% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torino win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.51%) and 0-2 (8.86%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 1-0 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Torino in this match.
