Top meets bottom in a Serie A clash of establishment versus upstarts, as leaders AC Milan travel south to tackle Salernitana on Saturday.
Separated by a gulf of 43 points in the standings, the sides meet with the visitors back at the summit following last weekend's win over Sampdoria, while the hosts have previously won just once at Stadio Arechi this season.
Match preview
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February has been particularly kind to Milan, who followed up victory in the Derby della Madonnina by reaching the Coppa Italia semi-finals with a sparkling 4-0 win over Lazio, before hosting Sampdoria last Sunday afternoon.
A deserved three points at San Siro helped Stefano Pioli's men top the table ahead of city rivals Inter - who they will meet again in the cup semis - with their margin a single point over the Nerazzurri, who have played one game fewer.
As veteran talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic is once more out of action through the latest in a long line of injuries, others have been stepping up to the plate for the Rossoneri, and after Olivier Giroud's heroics in the Milan Derby, young Rafael Leao has scored in both of their last two matches - including a stunning early strike which decided the game against Samp.
Directly involved in five of Milan's last eight Serie A goals - with three goals and two assists - the Portugal international has helped his club plunder 50 league goals already this term, at an average of two per game.
Under the unassuming guidance of Pioli, the Rossoneri have also won a remarkable 33 of their 46 away games in the top flight since his appointment in October 2019 - more than any other team in the top five European leagues during that period.
Therefore, they start as overwhelming favourites against a side they beat 2-0 in the reverse fixture just a couple of months ago; continuing a friendly run of fixtures. After facing struggling Sampdoria and now Salernitana, next week the Scudetto hopefuls host lowly Udinese.
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Perhaps understandably, given their status as provincial outsiders, Salernitana have only won one Serie A match against Milan in their history, and none since 1948.
For most of that time the Salerno side have been resident outside Calcio's top tier, but such a fact only serves to highlight the chasm between them and their visitors this Saturday evening.
Not only have the Granata got the sheer weight of precedent against them when they file out onto the pitch at the Arechi, but this season they have only picked up four of their 13 points against opponents in the top half of the table.
Frequently limited in their share of the ball, Salernitana have also posted the lowest possession stats (38%) in Serie A this term, and were even edged in that regard during last week's battle at the bottom versus 19th-placed Genoa.
Though Stefano Colantuono's side managed to hold out for a 1-1 draw at Marassi, they remain three points behind their Ligurian counterparts and some nine adrift of safety - with games running out to salvage their Serie A status - so the coach only appointed earlier this season has been replaced by ex-Torino boss Davide Nicola.
Salernitana's first top-flight season in 23 years has, relatively speaking, taken a turn for the better since they were almost kicked out of the league for off-field reasons, and they have picked up five points from their five fixtures in 2022. More than doubling their average of points per game from their first 18 matches, Nicola will now hope to upset the odds and continue that upward trend on his debut in the dugout.
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Team News
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Milan's joint-top scorer Zlatan Ibrahimovic has yet to return to full training, as the 40-year-old striker continues to suffer with inflammation of the Achilles tendon and will be sidelined once again.
Both Matteo Gabbia and new signing Marko Lazetic trained individually this week too, and are doubtful, but long-term absentee Simon Kjaer aside, Stefano Pioli should have a full squad from which to choose. Importantly, influential full-back Theo Hernandez returns to the XI after serving a suspension for his dismissal in the Derby.
In Ibrahimovic's absence, Olivier Giroud will lead the line up front, having scored seven Serie A goals in nine starts for the club, but he is yet to find the net outside of San Siro and has now failed to score away from home in just over a year.
Meanwhile, the hosts will have Mamadou Coulibaly, Matteo Ruggeri and on-loan forward Simone Verdi out of commission due to injury.
With Verdi unavailable, recent acquisition Diego Perotti will be vying with Milan Djuric to join Federico Bonazzoli in attack, though Francesco Di Tacchio is another new signing also in contention.
Franck Ribery should be deployed at some stage by Salernitana's new coach Davide Nicola, but the French winger last scored in Serie A against Milan nearly 12 months ago - since failing to find the net for a total of 22 league games.
Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Mazzocchi, Fazio, Dragusin, Ranieri; Radovanovic, L. Coulibaly, Ederson; Ribery, Djuric; Bonazzoli
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Calabria, Romagnoli, Tomori, Hernandez; Tonali, Bennacer; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao; Giroud
We say: Salernitana 1-3 AC Milan
Each of the last nine matches between the first and last team in the table has ended with a win for the leaders of Serie A, and that run stretching back to May 2016 is set to continue.
Despite hiring a range of fresh faces in the transfer window - and now adding a new manager following their change of ownership - Salernitana fall far short of Milan's standards, and the Rossoneri can pick off the hosts through numerous attacking threats across the pitch.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 64.76%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 15.54%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%), while for a Salernitana win it was 2-1 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
