Rwanda and Uganda face a make-or-break few days as they meet for the first of two matches at Nyamirambo Regional Stadium on Thursday in World Cup 2022 qualifying.
The hosts are third in Group E on two points, while neighbours Rwanda are bottom with just one to their name, meaning both sides are playing catch up on leaders Mali.
Match preview
Rwanda kicked off their qualifying campaign with a 1-0 loss to Mali last month, with Hatayspor midfielder Adama Traore scoring the only goal of the contest.
The Wasps did manage to get off the mark four days later, though, with a 1-1 draw at home to Kenya, ensuring that their hopes of finishing top are not dead and buried just yet.
Indeed, that narrow loss to Mali is one of only two suffered by Rwanda in their last 13 outings. That includes a run of seven draws, six of those finishing goalless.
If nothing else, then, Vincent Mashami's men are a tough side to beat and that could be bad news for a Uganda side in need of a victory.
The Cranes have been held to goalless draws by Kenya and Mali in their opening two matches, placing them level on points with the former and two points behind the leaders.
Uganda are now without a win in 10 matches overall since November 2020, four of those finishing by the same 0-0 scoreline.
Three of the last four meetings between these sides have finished level, though Uganda have the better overall record with 14 wins to Rwanda's 10 victories.
The Group E rivals meet against in Uganda three days after this showdown at Nyamirambo Regional Stadium.
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Team News
The big news for Uganda in terms of their squad selection is that Khalid Aucho has taken over captaincy duties due to Emmanuel Okwi's absence.
Okwi was part of the squad for last month's games, but he has failed to find a new club and has been overlooked for selection this time around.
Murushid Juuko will also play no part against Rwanda as he is serving a suspension for his red card against Mali.
As for Rwanda, Mashami may name a similar starting lineup to the one used in the draw with Kenya a month ago.
Jacques Tuyisenge has 15 goals in 52 international appearances and seems certain to get the nod up top here.
Rwanda possible starting lineup:
Mvuyekure; Omborenga, Rwatubyaye, Nirisarike, Imanishimwe; Bizimana, Mukunzi; Muhire, Niyonzima, Hakizimana; Tuyisenge
Uganda possible starting lineup:
Watenga; Iguma, Walusimbi, Timothy, Muleme; Karisa, Byaruhanga, Aucho, Ibrahim; Mukwala, Fahad
We say: Rwanda 0-0 Uganda
These sides are goalless draw experts, with 10 of the last 25 matches between them finishing 0-0.
As desperate as both teams are for a win to keep their qualifying dreams alive, we can only see this one finishing one way.
Top tip
Daniel Lewis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rwanda win with a probability of 41.62%. A win for Uganda had a probability of 29.71% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rwanda win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.2%) and 2-1 (8.14%). The likeliest Uganda win was 0-1 (10.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
