Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 37.29%. A win for Khimki had a probability of 34.61% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.88%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Khimki win was 1-0 (11.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Akhmat Grozny would win this match.