Rotherham United and Sutton United put their promotion bids to one side this weekend as they square off in the EFL Trophy final at Wembley Stadium.
At a time when Rotherham currently sit at the top of the League One standings, Sutton are 10th in League One, just two points adrift of the playoff places.
Match preview
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There was a time not so long ago when Rotherham looked near-certainties to earn a bounce-back promotion to the Championship given the size of their lead over third place and lower in League One.
However, a run of one victory in five third-tier fixtures has put the Millers not only at risk of losing top spot to Wigan Athletic, but being caught by MK Dons.
Paul Warne will be happy to ignore league matters for a weekend, watching on with interest as their rivals get another game under their belts, and it gives the Yorkshire outfit a chance to focus on trying to win some silverware.
Rotherham have certainly reached the final the hard way, prevailing in three penalty shootouts against Port Vale, Cambridge United and Hartlepool United at different stages of the competition.
Warne's side also had to come behind on two occasions in the last-four showdown with the latter of those teams, and they would definitely be regarded as deserved winners if they can get over the line on Sunday.
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The same can be said of a Sutton side who have enjoyed a dream-like run to Wembley in their first-ever appearance in this competition.
Like Rotherham, Sutton required penalties to reach the upcoming North London showpiece, upsetting Wigan Athletic on their travels and preventing a top-two League One battle from taking centre stage.
Perhaps the most impressive statistic of their EFL Trophy streak is just two goals being conceded in seven matches, particularly when you consider that they have been combining their efforts in this tournament with an unlikely promotion bid in League Two.
Matt Gray's team have recently lost three of five matches to drop off the pace, but such was their form during the middle part of the season that it has not been enough to leave them out of contention.
Unsurprisingly, these two teams will be meeting in their first-ever competitive encounter at the weekend.
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Team News
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Despite his dismissal against Shrewsbury Town, Angus MacDonald is available for this fixture, although that does not necessarily mean that he will remain in the back three.
Warne has revealed that Michael Smith and Freddie Ladapo have both recovered from injuries to give themselves an opportunity to feature in the squad.
The latter is more likely to start among the replacements after a near-month-long absence, while Richard Wood and Chiedozie Ogbene could both be recalled to the team.
After the poor performance at Port Vale, Gray will give consideration to making several changes to his Sutton side.
Will Randall, Isaac Olaofe and Richie Bennett are all alternatives on the left flank and in attack,
Rotherham United possible starting lineup:
Vickers; Edmond-Green, Wood, Ihiekwe; Ogbene, Rathbone, Barlaser, Wiles, Ferguson; Smith, Kayode
Sutton United possible starting lineup:
Bouzanis; Kizzi, Goodliffe, John, Wyatt; Ajiboye, Eastmond, Beautyman, Boldewijn; Wilson, Bugiel
We say: Rotherham United 3-0 Sutton United
In one of the biggest matches in their history, you have to expect Sutton to raise their game in a bid to match their higher-quality opponents. However, providing that they score an early goal, we feel that Rotherham could run away with this one and be lifting silverware by the end of the afternoon.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rotherham United win with a probability of 45.73%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 29.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rotherham United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 1-2 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%).
